This article is part of the Analytical Reporting to Improve the Federation (ARIF) projectChanges to the ethnic federal system are on the cards—but they could worsen Ethiopia’s instabilityPolitical war has been taking its toll on Ethiopia for the past half decade, leading to efforts to bring together a deeply divided country. The lack of consensus over fundamental issues amongst Ethiopia’s diverse population is at the root of the chronic instability.1In particular, the 1995 federal constitution has been a contentious subject since its adoption. The ethno-linguistic state structure and the extent of self-determination rights granted to “nations, nationalities and peoples” are the main focal points of disagreements. The division between proponents and critics of the system grew more visible following a political transition in 2018. The Prosperity Party government says it is cognizant of the need to resolve the constitutional dilemma and says it supports consensus-based constitutional reform.The state’s preferred method to generate the necessary consensus is a National Dialogue, which was initiated in late 2021 when the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) was established by the House of Peoples’ Representatives. Since then, questions surrounding the constitution are referred to the dialogue and calls for an amendment appear to have a genuine prospect of materializing. As such, the National Dialogue could be a decisive factor towards constitutional reform. It’s expected to establish if a need for amendment exists in the first place, and if it does, gather details of the changes that are sought.Moreover, the dialogue aims to generate agreement among participants with diverging opinions on the issue. Considering the polarized state of the nation, the difficulties of achieving this cannot be overstated.The need for a broad-based National Dialogue is widely accepted, and inclusive public participation is key to a successful constitutional amendment process. However, there are many who doubt the dialogue underway can generate a true consensus or lead to resolution of the constitutional dilemma.In fact, there are concerns from various politicians that an amendment made without sufficient agreement could exacerbate conflict.Controversial MediatorThe dialogue aspires to bring together political and opinion leaders and various segments of society with differences on fundamental national issues to a public discussion in order to generate a national consensus.The eleven-member National Dialogue Commission (NDC) is mandated with identifying the root causes of these differences, crafting agendas, and then facilitating inclusive forums at regional and national levels.2 NDC is also tasked with producing recommendations based on the results of the consultations, and supporting and following up their implementation.In addition to the broad scope of its task, the commission has a lot riding on its shoulders. This is that constitutional reform will determine the future of the Ethiopian state structure and so is significant enough to steer the country towards peace or along the path of more war.Its findings and suggestions are likely to serve as a basis for constitutional alterations and the procedures that will be followed. Thus, public trust in the commission as an impartial mediator is key to acceptance of any resulting amendment.In this regard, several opposition political parties have been critical of the commission’s independence from the government and have questioned the sincerity of the process. Worryingly, several prominent parties decided not to partake in the consultations and more seem to be on the way out.From its beginning three years ago, much of the opposition haven’t been convinced of the commission’s impartiality, mainly due to a government-led establishment process and its accountability to a parliament overwhelmingly dominated by members of the ruling party.Although many parties subsequently came back to the fold, participation started to dwindle again recently during the agenda-collection process in Oromia and Amhara.In December, seven opposition parties, including Enat party, All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP) and Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) party, came out in two separate statements expressing their concerns regarding the national dialogue’s narrowing prospect for success. While the blame was mainly directed towards the government for being authoritarian and lacking determination to restore peace, the commission was criticized for carrying on with a flawed process.Currently, NDC is making efforts to bring non-participating political parties back to the dialogue. In a press statement on 18 July, the commission revealed that it had held discussions with three political parties—the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP), AEUP, and Enat—all of whom have set preconditions for their return.These include peaceful resolution of ongoing conflicts and the combatants’ inclusion in the National Dialogue, and the participation of ostracized political parties as well as imprisoned politicians, journalists and activists in dialogue. The parties believe that, although NDC has its own role, the fulfilment of these preconditions primarily depends on state actors. NDC said it will continue to hold discussions with other parties currently withholding their participation. Limited DialogueSome politicians are not optimistic that the National Dialogue will resolve the constitutional dilemma.Head of the Ethiopian National Unity Party (ENUP), Zerihun Gebregziabher, told Ethiopia Insight, the commission’s impartiality didn’t improve in time like many opposition politicians hoped but rather worsened: “The implementation of federalism is questionable, and a reform with certain consensus is also necessary for the sake of the nation’s long-term continuity. We don’t believe the dialogue will resolve either issue, in fact we worry it might complicate the matter further and cause more tragedy.”Likewise, Abrham Getu, Deputy President of AEUP, believes the NDC hasn’t made the necessary efforts to bring key players to the table, and also appears to be under the state’s influence. “We expected the commission to coordinate and convince stakeholders from all sides to come to a dialogue but this didn’t happen, consequently in our view and many others the commission seems to have deep rooted issues of impartiality.”Both statements also point out that the scale of violence and harm in Amhara and Oromia doesn’t appear to be given due significance by the commission but are rather downplayed. The parties are currently undecided on whether to continue their participation or withdraw.Moreover, the commission is criticized for being silent on unlawful actions of the administration, such as civil rights violations, which are obstacles to dialogue. Conversely, there are politicians who think it is managing to stay neutral and overall doing all it can in challenging circumstances.One of those is Yosef Derebo, a member of another opposition group, Wolayta People’s Democratic Front Party (WPDF), who sees the criticism of the commission’s impartiality as exaggerated. Rather, he says more needs to be done to ensure the inclusivity of consultation forums and improve transparency.The commission repeatedly emphasizes its impartiality, a claim echoed by the government leadership.3 If a consensus-based constitutional amendment is to emanate from the National Dialogue, its claims of neutrality must show in its actions, thereby winning the trust of stakeholders and communities.Missing ActorsDespite commissioners and government officials stressing the importance of inclusivity, in practice the absence of key actors is raised as a major shortcoming of the dialogue process. Particularly, armed groups in Amhara and Oromia are yet to be part of the consultations, and there seems to have been little attempt to bring combatants to the table.This is undoubtedly the biggest barrier to a successful process, and what’s leading many to perceive it as a disingenuous exercise.The Amhara Fano and the OLA have strong and divergent views of the constitution.OLA is an avid supporter of the constitutional order and in favor of exercising ethnic self-determination to a full extent. Fano rebels, however, are generally not only against the ethno-linguistic state structure but also sees the constitution as the cause for attacks against Amharas in Oromia and elsewhere because they are depicted as historical subjugators. Considering these polarized stances, it is hard to imagine constitutional reforms that brings them together. Yet a process that excludes these armed groups can’t reasonably be expected to bring peace, and instead may fuel more violence. Essentially, the goal of the National Dialogue, to establish consensus over contentious matters of national importance, will remain a mere theory so long as the armed factions are not involved. All three of the above interviewees raised the paramount importance of bringing the combatants in both regions to the dialogue.SUPPORT PEOPLE-POWERED MEDIA .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Yosef from WPDF stated his party had been pushing the commission to make efforts to bring the armed groups to the table. “Apart from the devastating human and economic costs, the ongoing armed conflict greatly hinders productive consultation as participants of the dialogue are targeted and killed by armed groups; involving armed groups in the dialogue must be prioritized above all.”Since the start of agenda-collection forums in mid-2024, ENDC has been calling for the both armed groups to be part of the consultations and offered to give safe passage to their respective representatives. However, this wasn’t received well by the fighters, and the responses of both groups were to denounce the commission and the entire process, stating that the dialogue is merely the Prosperity Party government’s propaganda tool and a means to extend its power.A minimal sign of progress was seen when a group of OLA members who struck a peace deal with the authorities last year participated in the agenda-collection forum in Oromia region in December.During the dialogue process in Amhara, Chief Commissioner Mesfin Araya told state media that he’s in a direct communication with a faction of Fano militia interested in partaking in the dialogue after they had come to realize the impartiality of the commission.The commissioner added that they’re in discussion with the Amhara regional administration regarding how the fighters can be accommodated. This however failed to materialize as no active member of the militia participated in the dialogue, and a bulk of the fighters are still unwilling to consider participating.Exclusive PartyAdditionally, although ENDC was established during the Tigray war it is yet to start operations in the region. The fact that Tigray remains under an interim administration and its lack of representation at the federal level poses a procedural obstacle for a constitutional amendment.Despite the cessation of hostilities in 2022, conflicts within the leadership of the interim administration and the TPLF threatens Tigray’s stability again. The commission’s plan to collect agendas last month in Tigray didn’t succeed due to opposition from the region’s interim administration and opposition parties.In August, TPLF’s Amanuel Assefa told the media that before the NDC starts operating in Tigray, the region’s constitutional status must be reinstated and the 2022 peace agreement fully implemented. Similar arguments were raised by opposition parties such as National Congress of Tigray (Baytona) and Salsay Weyane Tigray. What’s more, several prominent, influential Ethiopian opposition politicians are currently in exile, and more are imprisoned facing criminal charges, and so haven’t been part of the process so far. Accordingly, the much-emphasized principle of inclusivity hasn’t yet been fulfilled, a major weakness. NDC recently started to publicly acknowledge the need to rectify such a major shortcoming if the dialogue is to generate a lasting solution.Chief Commissioner Mesfin stated in May the absence of key armed groups and politicians, including those in exile and imprisoned, is a major concern of the commission and other stakeholders. He urged the government to take all possible measures to facilitate their participation.However, Abiy expressed a critical view regarding political parties that refuse to participate in the dialogue. During a consultation in June with leaders of the opposition, Abiy accused them of lacking substance to contribute towards a constitutional amendment, and shying away from the process in order to appease their foreign donors. “Should you refuse to participate, that won’t be an issue; we’ll continue with willing participants and won’t halt the process in your absence…I’m sure you have nothing more to add to the issues that have already been raised.”Despite the unwelcoming sentiment, the parties in question significant actors, hence their absence has the potential to reduce public acceptance of any resulting constitutional amendment.Conceding SpaceThe need for constitutional amendment is widely accepted, yet a major challenge arises when it comes to agreeing on what changes to make and what procedure to follow. While critics of ethnic federalism want a stronger national identity, advocates of the system believe their hard-won rights to ethnic self-rule must be preserved.4The diverging viewpoints were reflected in the agenda-collection process. For instance, points raised by participants in Oromia include the integration of the capital Addis Ababa (known as Finfinne among Oromos) into Oromia, the preservation of ethnic self-determination rights including secession, and the contentious national flag to remain unaltered as it symbolizes a hard-earned ethnic equality.These constitution provisions were often opposed in the Amhara forums. Hence, a certain give and take is necessary. But the polarized stances aren’t easy to mediate during peace times, let alone amid the prevailing turmoil.What’s more, the divisions are also prevalent within the government. At a regional level, support for ethnic self-determination exists in Oromia, Somali, and the ethnically diverse new regions in the south. Meanwhile, since early last year, the Amhara administration started to criticize the constitution for being too ethnocentric as it called for amendment.5If the process goes ahead, all twelve regions would have a say in the amendment one way or another. If constitutional provisions on amendment are to be strictly followed, any one region, as an equal member of the federation, has the ability to veto proposed amendment to ethnic self-rule rights.A consensus in this case would require every region relinquishing their self-rule rights to a degree, in favor of national unity. This seems highly unlikely, at least at this stage. Official DistrustWhen it comes to the central government, the Prime Minister, a generally pro-unity leader, started to point out shortcomings within the constitution shortly after coming to office in 2018. A month into his premiership, he raised the need to introduce term limits for heads of states. Other constitutional matters raised through the years include land ownership provisions, uncapped right to establish new regions and secession rights.Further information came in June when the head of South Ethiopia Regional State Tilahun Kebede presented the federal government’s agendas for the dialogue, which had been selected by a group of 160. The constitution was a focus, particularly the federal structure, balancing individual and group rights and ethnic and national identity, forming a shared and uniting narration, the national flag, and land laws. The statement suggested an intention to overhaul ethnic federalism.The premier views the constitution as the opposite of assimilationist founding documents during the imperial era and under the Derg, and has expressed the need for moderation between ethnic rights and national unity, notably via his Medemer doctrine. Moreover, the lack of inclusivity in the constitution-making process has been raised by Abiy as the reason behind the prevailing contention.Although this appetite for constitutional amendment strengthened opposition from pro-ethnic self-determination sides, it didn’t go as far in garnering the support from those in favor of stronger national unity, as indicated by the brutal armed resistance in Amhara.6The sincerity of the unity rhetoric appears to be doubted by many from both sides, who accuse Abiy of merely being after centralization of political power for his own personal aggrandizement rather than for national unity.7 Accordingly, a Prosperity Party-led constitutional amendment could face opposition even from the biggest advocates of stronger national unity.Nonetheless, the ruling party’s stated vision is to introduce a constitution of the people. During the opening ceremony of the National Dialogue last June, Abiy stated there were ample opportunities to enact constitutional reform when his administration took office, but it refrained from doing so to enable the people decide, hence the establishment of the commission.8The critical matter of procedure was also raised in the speech. Abiy said that in the absence of a consensus over the substances of a constitutional amendment, contentious provisions would be put to a referendum.Despite its unconstitutionality, a referendum alternative appeals to politicians from both sides, who seemingly prefer to concede to the people rather than have the matter decided by a single party behind closed doors.Caution AdvisedWhile the notion of a referendum seems viable, the issue of fairness and problematic circumstances are raised as potential obstacles for a genuine referendum.Mulatu Gemechu, a senior member of the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), a pro ethnic-federalism opposition party, concedes that a referendum is a better alternative than a flawed national dialogue being used as a basis for amendment. However, the absence of democracy and the possibility of interference with the referendum by an authoritarian regime are his biggest concerns.Likewise, Yosef sees a referendum as an appropriate method and points out necessary preconditions. “A decision of the people is most important, but before that people must be well informed on the issue, and the decision shouldn’t emanate from excitement or confusion. After a rigorous deliberation and the people sufficiently think through and digest the matter, a referendum could come as a relief.”Pro-unity opposition members share a similar view. Zerihun and Abrham would both welcome a referendum, but see challenging circumstances to ensure legitimacy, mainly the lack of peace and political freedom that would hinder campaigning.Risks InvolvedAlthough there appears to be a genuine prospect for some sort of constitutional amendment to come to pass in the near future, its chances of success in terms of easing conflicts and bringing peace appears remote. In fact, many, including some in favor of a constitutional overhaul, are concerned the current path towards amendment could end up worsening the disorder.The dangers of a sudden departure from ethnic federalism are often raised from several sides. Undoubtedly, doing away with the system is a precarious undertaking that must be handled with extreme care, and certainly shouldn’t be rushed. “Prevailing circumstances aren’t suitable for undertaking a substantial reform; a certain stability must exist to give people a chance to think calmly and for genuine consultations. Otherwise, there’s a likelihood where conflicts could spiral out of control,” said Zerihun.As it stands, state repression and distrust among ethnicities are still fueling Ethiopia’s political violence. Hence, attempting a significant constitutional reform under the current state of turmoil is a gamble at best.More so if the trajectory of alienating opposition politicians, armed groups, and other elites from the reform process continues. Additionally, suspicion about the motives of the administration will reduce the public acceptance of any constitutional change.Even though restoring stability is crucial before a change of this magnitude can be considered, the Prosperity Party administration’s priorities in this regard appear misplaced.Considering the antagonistic attitude of Abiy towards armed groups, there doesn’t appear to be a conviction to restore peace from the administration but rather a determination to win by force. That’s also partly what has led to a dwindling participation of political parties in the National Dialogue.The nation is edging along the path towards constitutional amendment despite this not being the most auspicious moment. As the National Dialogue is proceeding, it will soon be seen whether amendments will emerge, or be put off until a time of greater stability.Currently, the majority of the unrest is taking place in the country’s two largest regions Amhara and Oromia, as Amhara’s Fano and the Oromo Libation Army (OLA) continue to put up armed resistance against the Prosperity Party government. Fano and OLA have often opposed views of the constitution. ︎Thus far, ENDC has completed the agenda collection process at the federal level and in all regions except for Tigray. It is also yet to collect agendas from the diaspora. Subsequent steps under the commission’s plan of action are completing agenda collections, crafting agendas for the dialogue, electing representatives (participants) of dialogue forums, and recruiting and training dialogue forum moderators. The commission expects these undertakings to be completed in the next few months. ︎During the opening ceremony of the National Dialogue in June, Abiy, in reference to the eleven commissioners, said from the podium: “People who are near their graves won’t lie or steal, rather they only aspire for leaving a legacy to their country.” ︎Proponents of the constitution view the current system as one that granted autonomy to previously subjugated people and their guarantee of preventing a regression to the nation’s violent assimilationist past. Critics regard ethnic federalism to be based on distorted narratives and the source of the prevailing ethnic polarization. Some also think the system laid fertile ground for ill-intentioned state actors aimed at widening divisions. Hence, they argue a constitutional overhaul is necessary to restore peace and preserve national unity. ︎The federal government claims to be cognizant of the plight of Amharas and the overall constitutional dilemma, which it says is in need of reform to build a lasting peace. The state’s effort in this regard is what partly led to the establishment of the National Dialogue Commission in 2021. ︎A press statement in late July from the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress highlighted the government’s attempt to establish a centralized authoritarian state and its systematic weakening of ethnic federalism, as well as the advancement of a singular national narrative to the detriment of self-determination rights, to be at the center of the nation’s crisis. A perceived threat to self-determination rights is also a major driver of armed resistance in Oromia. ︎Some believe intention behind the center’s support for constitutional reform is to introduce an executive president. Abiy’s aspiration for a presidential system was brought to light in 2020 by federal and Tigray politician Getachew Reda, who said he was a member of a constitutional amendment study group to which the Prime Minister suggested the introduction of a presidential system, arguing it would be more democratic. Getachew said the study group rejected this suggestion as it won’t fit Ethiopia’s diverse ethno-political spectrum. More recently, politician Jawar Mohammed also raised a similar possibility in an interview with BBC Amharic. ︎More recently, during the June consultation with political parties, Abiy repeatedly emphasized the necessity of inclusivity in a constitutional amendment process. He stated that the Prosperity Party has the legislative power to amend the constitution, but doing so without consulting opposition parties and other segments of society would bring Prosperity Party’s constitution and not Ethiopia’s. ︎BACK OUR INDEPENDENT JOURNALISM! .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Query or correction? Email us window.addEventListener("sfsi_functions_loaded", function(){if (typeof sfsi_widget_set == "function") {sfsi_widget_set();}}); This is the author’s viewpoint. However, Ethiopia Insight will correct clear factual errors.Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.The post Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Seeks to Smooth the Path to Constitutional Reform appeared first on Ethiopia Insight.