Amid the US rhetoric against India’s Russian oil imports, the key question is whether Indian refiners will meaningfully cut their appetite for Russian crude. While July and August have already seen a decline in deliveries of Russian crude at Indian ports, industry insiders attribute that largely to shrinking discounts on Moscow’s oil, and not American pressure, as those cargoes would have been booked weeks before Donald Trump upped the ante against India in July and announced additional tariffs on Indian goods early August.Russian oil deliveries scheduled for September and October would give a clearer picture on the impact of Trump’s tariff tantrums over India’s hefty imports of Russian crude. On that count, initial tanker data does suggest a slump in loadings of Russian crude to India—likely to be discharged at Indian ports in September and October—from July levels. Notably though, it may still be too early to say whether Trump’s pressure tactics have indeed led to a marked change in Indian refiners’ Russian oil imports. That is because a number of tankers laden with Russian crude are headed towards Egypt’s Port Said, which means that the possibility of these cargoes making their way to India cannot be ruled out.“Looking at the latest numbers, Russian crude loadings to India are currently tracking about 37 per cent lower month-on-month for August (as of August 24), at around 1 million bpd (barrels per day). However, this could still change. Several vessels are heading toward Port Said, Egypt, which typically indicates they will transit the Suez Canal. In the past, we’ve seen such ships update their final destinations while en route. All Russian flows to India in July passed through the Suez Canal, so it remains a key transit route,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider.“At a more granular level, up to August 24 we observed a notable increase in cargoes that have sailed from Russian ports without a declared discharge destination. Vessel tracking data shows that many of these tankers discharged their previous two to three cargoes at Indian refineries, suggesting India remains a strong potential outlet. However, it is also possible that some of these barrels could be diverted to other Asian buyers that continue to take Russian crude,” Ritolia said.‘No change in strategy on Russian crude’India’s public sector refiners have publicly stated that they have not received any directive or indication from the government with respect to their Russian oil imports, and their strategy on buying Moscow’s crude continues to be dictated by economic and commercial considerations. The Indian government continues to maintain that the country will buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal, as long as the oil is not under sanctions. Russian oil is not under sanctions, and is only subject to a price cap imposed by the US and its allies that applies if Western shipping and insurance services are used for transporting the oil.Indian refiners’ hefty imports of Russian crude have surfaced as a major irritant for the Trump administration. Earlier in August, Trump announced an additional 25 per cent tariff—over and above the 25 per cent tariff announced on Indian goods—as a penalty for India’s Russian oil imports. New Delhi has called the targeting of India over the purchase of Russian oil “unjustified and unreasonable” and said these imports began as its traditional supplies were diverted to Europe, with the US having “actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability”.The additional tariff has had no bearing on Indian refiners’ Russian oil import strategy, and purchases continue to be guided purely by economic and commercial considerations, according to top officials at India’s public sector refiners.Story continues below this adThe renewed pressure from the US and other Western powers—pressuring India to cut down on imports from the country—is aimed at forcing the Kremlin’s hand into ending the Ukraine war. For Trump, who wants the three-year-old Russia-Ukraine war to end within days, this is an opportune time to pressure India over its Russian imports, given the protracted trade pact negotiations between New Delhi and Washington have hit major roadblocks.When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow’s share in New Delhi’s oil imports was less than 2 per cent. With much of the West shunning Russian crude following the invasion, Russia began offering discounts on its oil to willing buyers. Indian refiners were quick to avail the opportunity, leading to Russia—earlier a peripheral supplier of oil to India—emerging as India’s biggest source of crude within a matter of months, displacing the traditional West Asian suppliers. Russia now accounts for 35-40 per cent of India’s total oil imports by volume.August deliveries of Russian crude hold steadyAs of August 24, India’s Russian oil imports for the month were 1.6 million bpd, flat on a month-on-month basis, but down 24 per cent from June levels, per vessel tracking data from Kpler. Industry insiders have attributed the decline largely to a significant erosion in discounts on Russian oil. Earlier this month, Bharat Petroleum Corporation’s (BPCL) Director (Finance) Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta said in an investor call that the discount on Russian crude had contracted to just around $1.5 per barrel, which had led to import volumes dipping a bit as Moscow’s oil lost much of its price advantage over competing crude grades.“So far in August, Russian crude imports into India have stayed relatively steady. But that’s less a sign of defiance and more about timing—most of these cargoes were likely locked in weeks earlier, in June or early July, well before any policy shifts came into play. If refiners do start to adjust their buying behavior in response to sanctions talk, we probably won’t see it reflected in the data until late September or October arrivals…for now, it’s business as usual for Russian crude imports by Indian refiners, but with increased caution,” Ritolia said, adding that unless there is a clear policy directive or a prolonged disruption in trade economics, Russian crude will likely remain a core part of India’s supply mix.Story continues below this adNew Delhi appears eager to increase import volumes from other suppliers to strengthen its energy security and keep dependencies on one or a small group of suppliers in check. According to industry watchers, there is a growing appetite for optionality on crude oil imports—not necessarily a move away from Russia, but a desire to keep other doors open as a hedge against potential disruptions and supply loss in case Russian oil indeed becomes unviable. In all, India’s oil import basket includes crudes from around 40 countries already, although a bulk of the supplies are from Russia and West Asia.