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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===y&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};be("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat(Vn)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat($n))};t.notifDropdown&&ro(e,t)}))}()}};]]>Murtuza J MerchantThu, Aug 21, 2025, 3:32 AM 3 min readBenzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below.The U.S. Treasury's plan to refill its General Account (TGA) with $500–600 billion over the next two months is set to test one of the most fragile liquidity environments in a decade.What Happened: According to Marcus Wu, Markets Research at Delphi Digital, the implications extend far beyond traditional finance, with stablecoins now positioned as both the first casualty and the unlikely stabilizer of this liquidity drain."In 2023, a $550B TGA rebuild was cushioned by over $2T in the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility, healthy bank reserves and strong foreign Treasury demand," Wu said. "Those buffers are now gone."Trending: The same firms that backed Uber, Venmo and eBay are investing in this pre-IPO company disrupting a $1.8T market — and you can too at just $2.90/share.Unlike prior cycles, every new dollar raised this fall will come directly from active market liquidity, magnifying the transmission of stress into risk assets.Wu argues that crypto markets, particularly stablecoins, will be the first to show signs of strain."In 2021, stablecoin supply expanded even as the TGA rose, reflecting the abundance of post-COVID liquidity," Wu noted."In 2023, stablecoin supply contracted by more than $5B and crypto stalled, showing how the drain hit digital dollar rails. In 2025, conditions are tighter still, making crypto the first place where funding stress could surface," he added.Why It Matters: The risks are not uniform.Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may prove more resilient, but Wu warns higher-beta tokens like Ethereum are more vulnerable in thin liquidity regimes."If stablecoin supply contracts during this refill, ETH and other risk-curve assets are likely to see disproportionately larger declines relative to BTC, unless they have offsetting structural inflows from ETFs or corporate treasuries," he explained.See Also: 2,000 High Earners Manage $6B With This AI Platform — Book Your Private DemoBut this cycle introduces a structural twist. Stablecoins themselves are becoming major buyers of Treasuries, a shift that could reshape both crypto and U.S. debt markets."Tether (CRYPTO: USDT) and Circle (NYSE:CRCL) now hold over $120B in U.S. government debt, larger than many sovereigns," Wu said. "Treasury projects stablecoin demand for bills could rise to $1T by 2028, creating a feedback loop where digital dollar rails directly absorb U.S. issuance."Wu outlines four phases of how the liquidity shock may play out: strength into late August, a sharp September drain as issuance front-loads, October–November fatigue with risk of stablecoin contraction, and a potential recovery as headwinds fade into December and January.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,391.56 +21.39 (+0.34%)Dow 3045,068.30 +282.80 (+0.63%)Nasdaq21,113.53 +13.22 (+0.06%)Russell 20002,274.10 +4.74 (+0.21%)VIX16.46 -0.14 (-0.84%)Gold3,369.20 -12.40 (-0.37%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersXPEV XPeng Inc. 23.25 +0.50 (+2.22%)ORLA Orla Mining Ltd. 10.21 -0.15 (-1.40%)CAAP Corporación América Airports S.A. 22.62 +0.40 (+1.80%)MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited 24.72 +2.56 (+11.55%)NIO NIO Inc. 5.86 +0.32 (+5.79%)Top losersHSAI Hesai Group 23.87 +0.81 (+3.51%)BMNR Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. 47.09 -0.88 (-1.83%)VNET VNET Group, Inc. 7.52 +0.18 (+2.45%)STEM Stem, Inc. 15.10 -0.26 (-1.66%)CVI CVR Energy, Inc. 26.71 -0.11 (-0.43%)Most activePLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. 153.75 -2.43 (-1.56%)AAL American Airlines Group Inc. 12.68 +0.11 (+0.88%)NU Nu Holdings Ltd. 13.61 -0.06 (-0.40%)SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. 22.99 -0.34 (-1.46%)F Ford Motor Company 11.45 +0.11 (+1.01%)Earnings eventsTrending tickersCBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. 55.59 +0.79 (+1.44%)NIO NIO Inc. 5.80 +0.27 (+4.79%)ZM Zoom Communications Inc. 78.13 +4.96 (+6.77%)NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 171.67 -3.31 (-1.89%)NVO Novo Nordisk A/S 56.85 +1.39 (+2.50%)Top economic events