Is ALT-season coming soon?(ETHUSD+XRPUSD+LTCUSD+DOGEUSD)/4/BTCUSD(BINANCE:ETHUSD+BINANCE:XRPUSD+BINANCE:LTCUSD+BINANCE:DOGEUSD)/4/BITSTAMP:BTCUSDquickshiftinnBitcoin’s supply schedule is punctuated by four-year “halvings,” where miner issuance is cut in half. Historically, the post‑halving window has coincided with the strongest phase of the cycle as tightening new supply meets rising demand. Liquidity first concentrates in Bitcoin, pushing dominance higher and volatility lower relative to alts. ALT‑season tends to appear later—often after a Bitcoin top or during a prolonged consolidation—when risk appetite broadens, profits rotate into higher‑beta assets, and narratives fragment across sectors. The featured chart compares prior cycles and frames where we might be within the current one. Where we are in the 2024 halving cycle At this stage, Bitcoin may be close to a cyclical high—or may already have set it—but confirmation is lacking. Altcoins have rallied meaningfully, yet at a top‑down level there isn’t decisive evidence of a new, durable alt‑season. Key confirmations I’m watching: • TOTAL2 breaking out of large cup-and-handle formation. • 1/BTC.D OTHERS trending up together (alts outperforming BTC both broadly and at the margin). TOTAL2 — Cup & Handle setup The weekly structure in TOTAL2 (crypto market cap excluding BTC) resembles a maturing cup‑and‑handle. What I’ll need to see: A weekly close above the cup’s rim with follow‑through the next week. Moreover, we need to see a weekly close above the prior 2 highs, which currently could be a double top. Momentum has been on the decline since the rally on alts started in earnest earlier this year... OTHERS/BTC — rotation breadth check This ratio (total market cap excluding the top‑10, divided by BTC) gauges whether capital is rotating into the long‑tail (more speculative / smaller ALTs). It looks like this could have fallen below long term support which suggests the lower quality ALTs may have permanently lost value against BTC during this cycle. That would be reasonable considering there are so many coins now, many of which will likely fade into dust. 1/BTC.D — macro rotation proxy The inverse of Bitcoin dominance (1 divided by BTC.D) visualizes altcoin outperformance over the longest available history. Here we can see a recent breakout from a downward trend channel, which is definitely auspicious! Altcoin spotlights (examples & placeholders) Replace with your chosen set; keep a mix of large‑caps, infra, and high‑beta to illustrate breadth. • ETHBTC — let's see a new ATH! There's been a blistering rally, tripling from a rough patch earlier in 2025, but momentum still needs to improve. Also concerning is a major drop off in volume in recent years. • SOLBTC — Solana had an insane 10x rally early in the cycle, but looks like it could be cooling off with the makings of a head & shoulders amidst declining volume. • LINKBTC — Chainlink has seen a strong price pump in recent weeks, but like Solana appears to have fading momentum. Unless something changes, it's hard to see it moving materially higher during this cycle. • XRPBTC — put up a mind blowing vertical 5x rally in late 2024 / early 2025. Like Solana and LINK, it shows declining momentum, so it could very well have peaked for the cycle. • DOGEBTC — ostensibly the original meme coin, unlike the more practical ALTs we've reviewed DOGE looks to have gas in the tank. Strangely it looks best poised for a breakout given historical pricing and momentum. Analysis recap Unfortunately there are both bullish and bearish signals making it hard to lean one way or another right now. In summary: BTCUSD - 2022 halving cycle • looks close to complete, we may have already seen the top for the cycle • prior cycles have been a few weeks longer since the halving so there could be a bit further to go • during the past 2 cycles ALTs have topped once before (2016 cycle), and once after (2020 cycle) the Bitcoin top, which doesn't help us in predicting the outcome of the third (current) cycle. High-level analysis TOTAL2 - cup & handle -- bullish OTHERS - break below long term support -- bearish 1/BTC.D - breakout of downward trend channel -- bullish Individual coin analysis ETHUSD SOLUSD LINKUSD XRPUSD - all of these coins are technically neutral to bearish, and they are heavyweights. DOGEUSD - shockingly bullish! Given that this is the epitome of a meme coin, maybe it means animal spirits are lurking in the shadows. It's hard to imagine DOGE pumping without the other coins we've looked at joining the party. Personal thoughts I decided to take a hard look at the prospects of an ALT-season to form my own opinion, mainly because I heard someone make a dismissive statement that "ALT-season always follows a Bitcoin top", or something to that effect. I think you can see it's not nearly that simple. Personally I think the market is pretty frothy, and risk assets could take a beating in the coming months. Just in case though, I've still got the XRP moon bag!