Get 100% ad-free experienceByMichael KramerPublished 08/26/2025, 12:26 AMUpdated 08/26/2025, 03:10 AMS&P 500 Likely to Test Key Support Following Yesterday’s Late-Day SellingView all comments (0)0The stock market finished mostly lower on Monday, although the S&P 500 was relatively unchanged, down just 43 bps, with most of it coming in the final minutes of the day. There was about $1.1 billion for sale in the S&P 500 in the final 10 minutes, which isn’t a large amount, but on a day that saw the S&P 500 futures barely fail to trade 900,000 contracts, it was enough.The pattern in the S&P 500 suggests the index may give back Friday’s gains. Typically, these sharp, straight-line rallies act like gaps, which tend to “fill” and revisit their starting point. If that happens, it won’t be surprising.One-year inflation swaps also moved higher on the day, reaching 3.36%. We’ll see what happens, but inflation swaps continue to point to higher inflation ahead. I find it hard to believe that if inflation expectations keep rising, Treasury yields won’t follow.At this point, we’ve seen very little movement on the long end of the curve. Even with the 30-year rates rising 2 bps on the day, it wasn’t enough to push the 30-year minus 3-month spread through resistance.In addition, there is a global trend of higher interest rates; both the ECB and the Bank of England have cut rates at the front end of the yield curve. However, the German 10-year has climbed to almost 2.75%, while the United Kingdom 30-Year has risen to 5.55%. Generally, both countries share the same backdrop of increased government spending.This is yet another reason why we could see 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rise in the US, even if the Fed cuts.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index continues to show strength, ripping higher and regaining most of what was lost on Friday. Every time the dollar looks ready to break down, it manages to hold the key support levels needed to prevent it. The overall trend in the dollar remains bullish.Original PostS&P 500 Likely to Test Key Support Following Yesterday’s Late-Day SellingView all comments (0)0Latest commentsInstall Our AppScan QR code to install appRisk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.