What's the future of Gold after September?GOLD (US$/OZ)TVC:GOLDQJEEEThere is a complicated relationship between GOLD and the US government (and especially the Federal Reserve). The history goes back to 2010, right after Great Recession. After experiencing a severe financial crisis with very low inflation rate and high unemployment, the Fed significantly increased the dollar supply after 2010. Central banks, who were initially the major net sellers of GOLD, then became the major net buyer. Why? Because they were concerned of major inflation due to the Fed's aggressive printing. They began to diversify their reserves away from US dollar, which we call 'De-dollarization". Growing world tensions since late 2010s further convinced the central banks to lower their reliance on US dollar. So here we are, watching GOLD price skyrocketing since 2010. When would be a good time to buy, then? Frankly anytime (in long term), but if you are looking for a short term opportunity, now might be the time. GOLD price has been rising rapidly since Trump's inauguration mostly due to the uncertainties caused by the trade war and tariffs. GOLD is often a 'safe haven' in these turbulent times. But it has calmed down a bit after April, possibly due to the trade negotiations. Technical analysis-wise, the price is staying within the wedge. And it is likely to break out in either direction before October. The upcoming Interest rate decision is September 18th. And it is very likely that the Fed will cut rates. Trump administration has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates. The administration's stance is that the Fed has been too restrictive about rates, hindering economical growth. But the Fed has stayed understandably reluctant due to inflationary concerns and uncertainties from new tariffs. But recent economical data, continuous political pressure and comments from Powell himself suggest that the central bank is now more open to cutting rates. This chart shows how the interest rate plays a role in GOLD price. We see an aggressive rate hikes from February to November, 2022 in order to slow down the inflation during COVID pandemic. Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 28th, the price has been pressured down from the rate hikes. It was only when the inflation rate signaled downtrend, the Fed slowed down the hike, allowing GOLD price to recover. The interest rate has been on hold since last December, but we might see a cut this September. Rate cut would weaken US dollar, pushing GOLD up again. So if you are thinking to buy GOLD, make it before September 18th.