FundamentalOverviewThe USD sold off across theboard on Friday as Fed Chair Powell tilted more dovish by saying that “withpolicy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balanceof risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”That saw traders firming upexpectations for a rate cut in September which now stands around 82%probability with a total of 54 bps of easing by year-end. Overall, it’s not therepricing in interest rates expectations that weighed on the greenback buthedges being unwound.Now, the focus turns to theUS NFP report next week which is going to be crucial and will influence greatlyinterest rates expectations. Strong data might take the probability for aSeptember cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkishrepricing further down the curve. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely seetraders increasing the dovish bets with a third cut by year-end being pricedin.On the CHF side, we haven’tgot anything new in terms of monetary policy as the SNB is now in a long pause.The latest Swiss CPI showed a slight improvement in inflation although it wasn't important as the central bank will not hike rates for a long time. The marketdoesn’t expect the SNB to cut anymore. There’s some focus at themoment on the 39% tariffs that the US slapped on Switzerland. That is likely tobe resolved in the near future with the rate being set between 10-20% as we’veseen for most other countries. USDCHFTechnical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that the price broke below the 0.8020 supportfollowing Powell’s dovish tilt but eventually the market erased most of thelosses as the focus turned to the US data, which is going to be the ultimatejudge. If the price rallies allthe way back to the trendline,we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it toposition for a drop back into the support. The buyers, on the other hand, willlook for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.82 handle next.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on thetrendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into the major trendline.The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for adrop into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UpcomingCatalystsTodaywehave the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the latest USJobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE priceindex. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.