As Zero-Emission Credit Revenue Dries Up, What Does That Mean for Tesla Stock?

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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===y&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};be("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat(Vn)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat($n))};t.notifDropdown&&ro(e,t)}))}()}};]]>Oleksandr PylypenkoThu, Aug 21, 2025, 7:41 PM 7 min readTesla (TSLA) has long enjoyed a unique advantage in the auto industry: its ability to rake in billions from selling regulatory credits to rival automakers struggling to meet federal fuel economy and emissions standards. For years, this lucrative stream of “easy money” has boosted Tesla’s profitability. But that era is coming to an end, and the implications for Tesla’s stock are becoming harder to ignore.The U.S. government’s rollback of clean energy incentives is closing the door on the regulatory credit market that once acted as a financial lifeline for EV makers. For Tesla, the largest beneficiary of the system, this shift represents a turning point. Without the cushion of credit revenue, the company must increasingly rely on its core business performance to deliver profits. That’s a tall order at a time when U.S. EV demand is expected to cool sharply, competition is intensifying, and the company’s own fundamentals are showing signs of strain.Warren Buffett Says Don’t Invest in Berkshire Hathaway Unless You ‘Understand Our Operations, Attitudes and Expectations’The Quantum Computing Race Is On: These 2 Stocks Appear Poised to LeadMichael Burry is Betting Big on This 1 S&P 500 Stock That’s Down 40% in 2025Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today!As Wall Street weighs the risks of a post-credit era, investors are left asking a critical question: without the golden goose of regulatory credits, what does the future hold for Tesla stock? Let’s take a closer look.Tesla is a prominent innovator dedicated to accelerating the global transition to sustainable energy. The Elon Musk-led powerhouse designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells high-performance fully electric vehicles, solar energy generation systems, and energy storage products. It also offers maintenance, installation, operation, charging, insurance, financial, and various other services related to its products. In addition, the company is increasingly focusing on products and services centered around AI, robotics, and automation. Its market cap currently stands at $1.04 trillion.Shares of the EV maker have slumped 20.6% on a year-to-date basis.www.barchart.comTesla and other EV makers in the U.S. are losing a major source of income as the U.S. officially phases out the emissions credit market. In one of my previous articles on TSLA, I discussed the impact of President Donald Trump’s recently signed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” on the EV maker. The most significant change is the elimination of the federal tax credit for EV purchases effective Sept. 30. Another important change is the termination of penalty enforcement for automakers with lower average fuel economy, essentially, those producing more gas-guzzling vehicles and fewer EVs.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,466.91 +96.74 (+1.52%)Dow 3045,631.74 +846.24 (+1.89%)Nasdaq21,496.54 +396.22 (+1.88%)Russell 20002,361.95 +87.85 (+3.86%)VIX14.22 -2.38 (-14.34%)Gold3,417.20 +35.60 (+1.05%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersOPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 5.01 +1.41 (+39.17%)UI Ubiquiti Inc. 510.23 +119.66 (+30.64%)MNSO MINISO Group Holding Limited 26.63 +4.46 (+20.12%)RXO RXO, Inc. 16.97 +2.27 (+15.44%)NIO NIO Inc. 6.34 +0.80 (+14.44%)Top losersNEGG Newegg Commerce, Inc. 100.75 -15.03 (-12.98%)BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. 97.11 -9.05 (-8.52%)INTU Intuit Inc. 662.66 -35.10 (-5.03%)DUOL Duolingo, Inc. 331.87 -13.65 (-3.95%)CSX CSX Corporation 34.58 -1.29 (-3.60%)Most activeOPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 5.01 +1.41 (+39.17%)NIO NIO Inc. 6.34 +0.80 (+14.44%)INTC Intel Corporation 24.80 +1.30 (+5.53%)NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 177.99 +3.01 (+1.72%)LCID Lucid Group, Inc. 2.0300 -0.0600 (-2.87%)Earnings eventsTrending tickersINTC Intel Corporation 24.80 +1.30 (+5.53%)ETH-USD Ethereum USD 4,765.62 +525.77 (+12.40%)OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc. 5.01 +1.41 (+39.17%)TSLA Tesla, Inc. 340.01 +19.90 (+6.22%)^DJI Dow Jones Industrial Average 45,631.74 +846.24 (+1.89%)Top economic events