TRIPP MICKLE2025年8月28日英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋。这家芯片制造商或许已成为股市走向最重要的决定因素。 Loren Elliott for The New York TimesNvidia, the artificial intelligence chipmaker, was crowned the world’s first $4 trillion public company last month and has become perhaps the most important factor determining the direction of the stock market.人工智能芯片制造商英伟达上个月成为全球首家市值4万亿美元的上市公司，同时可能已经成为决定股市走向的最重要因素。On Wednesday, the Silicon Valley company reported results that showed that spending on A.I. infrastructure remains robust, easing the anxieties of Wall Street and investors around the world.周三，这家硅谷公司公布的业绩显示，人工智能基础设施方面的支出依然强劲，这缓解了华尔街和世界各地投资者的焦虑。Concerns over whether tech companies would continue shelling out billions to build A.I. data centers — spending that has helped prop up the economy — had mounted in recent months. But Nvidia’s sales rose 56 percent to $46.74 billion in the three months that ended in July, just topping Wall Street’s expectations. Profit increased more than 59 percent to $26.42 billion.近几个月来，业界日益担心，科技公司是否会继续斥资数十亿美元建设人工智能数据中心——这种支出有助于支撑经济。但在截至7月的三个月里，英伟达的销售额同比增长56%，达到467.4亿美元，略超出华尔街的预期。利润增长超过59%，达到264.2亿美元。Revenue in the current quarter is projected to rise 54 percent from a year ago to $54 billion, as tech companies pour money into data centers. The forecast was in line with Wall Street’s prediction for $53.9 billion, but the company said its estimates did not include any sales for China, which would lift its revenue higher.随着科技公司向数据中心投入大量资金，本季度的收入预计将比去年同期增长54%，达到540亿美元。这一预测与华尔街预测的539亿美元一致，但该公司表示，其中不包括中国的任何销售额，而后者本将使其营收更高。“The last year, A.I. has made tremendous progress,” Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s chief executive, said during a call with analysts. He said the company’s chips would benefit as spending on A.I. infrastructure increased to $3 trillion to $4 trillion by the end of the decade.“去年，人工智能取得了巨大的进步，”英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋在与分析师的电话会议上说。他说，到2020年，人工智能基础设施的支出将增加到3万亿到4万亿美元，公司的芯片将从中受益。“We’re in the beginning of this build-out,” he said.“我们正处于这一建设阶段的初期，”他说。Shares of Nvidia fell more than 2 percent in after-hours trading. The decline, even when the company now posts quarterly profits bigger than tech peers like Apple and Meta, spoke to how lofty the expectations are. The company’s board approved a plan to repurchase $60 billion of its stock, signaling its confidence in its prospects.在盘后交易中，英伟达的股价下跌超过2%。在公司目前公布的季度利润高于苹果和Meta等科技同行的情况下，股价仍出现下跌恰恰反映出人们的期望有多高。该公司董事会批准了一项回购600亿美元股票的计划，表明其对前景充满信心。Nvidia’s results have been closely watched since OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, igniting an A.I. boom. The company’s fortunes have soared as tech companies have flocked to buy its chips, which are ideal for powering the development of A.I. Nvidia has grown into the market’s most significant stock, accounting for 7.5 percent of every dollar in the S&P 500, up from 3 percent in December. Its results also influence the values of tech and energy companies with A.I. businesses.自OpenAI于2022年底发布ChatGPT聊天机器人引发人工智能热潮以来，英伟达的业绩一直受到密切关注。随着科技公司蜂拥购买其芯片——它们是推动人工智能发展的理想选择——该公司的财富飙升。英伟达已成长为市场上最重要的股票，占标准普尔500指数每美元市值的7.5%，高于去年12月的3%。其业绩也影响着拥有人工智能业务的科技和能源公司的估值。“The question has been: Will the A.I. wave continue or could it meaningfully slow down?” said Melissa Otto, the head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha. Failing to meet expectations would be “like a grenade on the market,” she said. “It could blow up a lot of things.”“问题一直在于：人工智能浪潮会继续下去，还是会明显放缓？”标普全球可视阿尔法的研究主管梅丽莎·奥托指出。如果业绩未能达到预期，将会“像市场上的一颗手榴弹”，她说。“它可能会炸毁很多东西。”In recent months, demand for Nvidia’s newest chip, the Blackwell, has been especially scrutinized. Sales of the product, released late last year, have accelerated, with the company distributing about 72,000 Blackwell chips a week for an estimated price of $30,000 each.最近几个月，对英伟达最新芯片Blackwell的需求受到了特别的关注。该产品于去年年底发布，销量持续攀升，该公司每周约出货7.2万枚Blackwell芯片，每枚芯片的估计价格为3万美元。The chip has contributed to increased spending on data centers by Meta, Google and other cloud computing companies. In July, Meta said it would spend $7 billion more on data centers than planned this year, and Google said it would spend an additional $10 billion.该芯片推动了Meta、谷歌和其他云计算公司在数据中心上的支出增加。今年7月，Meta宣布将增加投入70亿美元用于数据中心建设，谷歌表示将额外支出100亿美元。Yet Nvidia has faced challenges, namely getting caught in the broader U.S.-Chinese power struggle. China is the world’s largest chip market, and Mr. Huang has said Nvidia needs to be there because half of the world’s A.I. developers are Chinese. But it has needed permission from Washington and Beijing to operate there.然而，英伟达面临着挑战，相关挑战主要是被卷入更广泛的美中权力斗争。中国是全球最大的芯片市场，黄仁勋表示，英伟达需要进入中国，因为全球一半的人工智能开发者是中国人。但它需要得到华盛顿和北京的许可才能在中国运营。In April, the Trump administration blocked Nvidia from selling its H20 chip, which was made specifically for Chinese companies, over concerns the chips could be used to help China’s A.I. industry and military. After Mr. Huang lobbied to reverse that decision, President Trump agreed in August to allow the sales.今年4月，特朗普政府阻止英伟达出售专门为中国公司制造的H20芯片，原因是担心这些芯片可能被用来帮助中国的人工智能产业和军事。在黄仁勋游说推翻这一决定后，特朗普总统于8月同意允许其出售。China later summoned Mr. Huang to Beijing to discuss its concerns about the security of Nvidia’s chips. It later discouraged Chinese companies from buying the H20.中国随后召黄仁勋前往北京，讨论其对英伟达芯片安全性的担忧。后来，中国开始劝阻中国企业不要购买H20。The negotiations meant Nvidia didn’t record any sales to China in the previous quarter. It also said that it has not assumed it will have any sales in China in the current quarter, even though Chinese customers have begun receiving licenses from the U.S. government to buy Nvidia chips.这些谈判意味着英伟达在上一季度没有在中国销售任何产品。英伟达还表示，虽然中国客户已经开始获得美国政府颁发的购买英伟达芯片的许可证，但它并不认为本季度会在中国有任何销售。During the call with analysts, Ms. Kress said government approval would clear the way for $2 billion to $5 billion in H20 sales in the current quarter. “We’re still waiting on several geopolitical issues going back and forth between the governments and the companies trying to determine their purchases,” she said. But, she added, “there is interest.”在与分析师的电话会议上，克雷斯说，政府的批准将为本季度20亿至50亿美元的H20销售额扫清道路。“我们仍在等待几个地缘政治问题的进展，它们在相关政府和试图决定购买计划的公司之间反复拉扯，”她说。但是，她还说，“还是有兴趣存在。”Nvidia’s caution about China disappointed investors, who see the country as critical to driving future sales. Before the company’s financial results, analysts estimated that Nvidia would reap $16 billion in revenue from China this year and projected that sales there could eclipse $56 billion next year, which would be a major boost to the company’s total revenue.英伟达对中国市场的谨慎态度令投资者失望，他们认为中国对推动未来销售至关重要。在英伟达公布财报之前，分析师估计，今年该公司在中国的营收将达到160亿美元，明年在华销售额将超过560亿美元，这将对该公司的总收入产生重大推动作用。Mr. Huang said Nvidia continued to talk to the Trump administration about the importance of China. He said he wanted to deliver a modified version of the company’s Blackwell chips to China, with reduced performance, and added that was “a real possibility.”黄仁勋说，英伟达继续与特朗普政府讨论中国的重要性。他说，他希望向中国提供性能下调的改版Blackwell芯片，并说这件事存在“切实的可能性”。“The China market I’ve estimated to be about $50 billion in opportunity for us this year,” Mr. Huang said during the call with analysts. “You would expect it to grow about 50 percent per year, as the rest of the world’s A.I. market is growing as well.”“我估计，中国市场今年给我们带来的机会约为500亿美元，”黄仁勋在与分析师的电话会议上说。“你可以预计，随着世界其他地区的人工智能市场也在增长，中国市场的年增长率将达到50%左右。”Lennart Heim, a tech analyst at RAND Corporation, a think tank, said Chinese companies would most likely buy two of those modified Blackwell chips at a premium price and piece them together to get more performance.智库兰德公司的科技分析师伦纳特·海姆说，中国公司很可能会以溢价购买两枚改版Blackwell芯片，然后将它们组装在一起，以获得更高的性能。“If this chip gets approved, there would be massive demand,” Mr. Heim said. “It’s significantly better than any chip China can produce, and they would love it.”“如果这款芯片获得批准，将会有巨大的需求，”海姆说。“这比中国自主生产的任何芯片都要好得多，他们会喜欢的。”Tripp Mickle为时报报道苹果公司和硅谷新闻，常驻旧金山。他对苹果公司的关注包括产品发布、制造问题和政治挑战。他也报道整个科技行业的趋势，包括裁员、生成式AI和机器人出租车等。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。