FundamentalOverviewThe USD sold off across theboard on Friday as Fed Chair Powell tilted more dovish by saying that “withpolicy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balanceof risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”That saw traders firming upexpectations for a rate cut in September which now stands around 85%probability with a total of 54 bps of easing by year-end. Overall, it’s not therepricing in interest rates expectations that weighed on the greenback but hedgesbeing unwound.Now, the focus turns to theUS NFP report next week which is going to be crucial and will influence greatlyinterest rates expectations. Strong data might take the probability for aSeptember cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkishrepricing further down the curve. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely seetraders increasing the dovish bets with a third cut by year-end being pricedin.On the EUR side, we haven’tgot anything new in terms of fundamentals after the US-EU trade deal that settariffs at 15%. Many ECB members are now taking a much more neutral approach torate cuts. They will need significant negative data to force them to cutfurther. The market is pricing just 9 bps of easing by year-end and 15 bps bythe end of 2026, which indicates that the easing cycle has already ended. EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that EURUSD rallied all the way up to the major trendline around the 1.1750 level. This iswhere we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above thetrendline to position for a drop back into the 1.16 support.The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher toincrease the bullish bets into a new cycle high. EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the strong move from the 1.16 support as Powell’s dovish tilttriggered an unwinding in hedges and the momentum increased as buyers piled in.There’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will look for a drop fromthese levels, while the buyers will look for an upside breakout to target newhighs.EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor counter-trendlinedefining the pullback. On an intraday basis, the buyers will likely lean on thetrendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for abreak lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.16 support. The red linesdefine the average daily range for today.UpcomingCatalystsTomorrow we have the US Consumer Confidencereport. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, weconclude the week with the preliminary inflation data for the major Eurozoneeconomies and the US PCE price index. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.