BTC: Battle Zone 110.7k–111.97k — Break or Bounce?Bitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDOx_kali__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC has been correcting from 117,493.5 and is now testing a 111k–110.7k support cluster, while the HTF uptrend remains intact. Price is compressing inside 110.7k–112k with dense liquidity and wicks. Momentum: 📉 Bearish-to-range bias while 111.97k caps; HTF uptrend, LTF correction in play. Key levels: - Resistances (LTF/HTF): 111,900–112,400 (W Pivot High 111,965.8), 117,000–117,500 (720 PH 117,493.5), 124,000–124,300 (D PH 124,277.5) - Supports (LTF/HTF): 110,700–110,900 (240 PL 110,709.6), 108,000–109,000 (recent lows), 98,500 (W PL 98,533.3) Volumes: Normal on 1D/12H; very high on 6H→30m during down legs (aggressive selling, absorption at 110.7k). Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/1W/12H up, 1–4H down; ISPD shows BUY on 4H/2H/30m (opportunistic bids at 110.7k); confirmation still requires a close > 111,966. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (risk-off stance) — supports caution and contradicts any durable squeeze while 111.97k holds. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: HTF bull, short-term correction; favor disciplined range-trading between 110.7k–112k until resolution. Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL while below 111,966; bearish bias invalidated on a 12H/1D close back above 111,966. Opportunities: - Defensive buy on clean rejection at 110.7k with reclaim > 111k, aiming 111.9k then 113.3k. - Breakout buy on 12H/1D close > 111,966, with room to 114–115k then 117,494. - Tactical sell on rejection at 111.97k–112.4k back to 110.7k; extend if 110.7k breaks. Risk zones / invalidations: - Break of 110,710 (2H/4H close) invalidates longs and opens 108k then 98,533. - Close > 112.6k invalidates range shorts, risk of squeeze to 115k–117.5k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Rate markets price multiple cuts into 2026 but inflation swaps drift higher: macro tug-of-war, choppy for risk. - Tariffs/trade and logistics frictions: inflationary tilt → pressure if yields rise. - Crypto deleveraging (~24k BTC sold) + steady institutional bids: leverage reset near supports, potential rebound if 111,966 is reclaimed. Action plan: - Defensive long: Entry 110.8k–111.1k / Stop 110.6k / TP1 111.9k, TP2 113.5k, TP3 114.8k / R:R ~1.8–2.3R - Breakout long: Entry (pullback) 111.9k–111.2k after close > 111,966 / Stop 110.9k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 115k, TP3 117,493 / R:R ~1.6–2.0R - Range short: Entry 111.97k–112.4k (clear rejection) / Stop 112.6k / TP1 111.2k, TP2 110.7k, TP3 109.5k / R:R ~1.7–2.2R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, HTFs stay constructive while LTFs correct within the 110.7k–112k band. 1D/1W/12H: Uptrend intact; compression above 110.7k; momentum recovery needs a decisive close > 111,966 to target 114–115k then 117,494. 6H/4H/2H: Active correction but opportunistic buyers (ISPD BUY) at 110.7k; confirmation through closes > 111.2k then > 111.97k. 1H/30m/15m: Bearish bias with heavy sell volume; repeated rejections below 111.97k–112.4k favor tactical shorts until the pivot is reclaimed. Major confluence/divergence: Risk Off Indicator at VENTE and normal HTF volumes cap squeeze odds; absorption at 110.7k supports tactical bounces while it holds. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed (rates vs inflation) while on-chain shows elevated leverage — a combo that keeps near-term risk premium high. Macro events: Markets price several cuts into 2026 but inflation swaps are drifting; tariff/trade headlines and supply-chain frictions; persistent geopolitics (Gaza, Ukraine) — all consistent with volatile risk appetite. Bitcoin analysis: Notable deleveraging (~24k BTC sold) cleared longs near 110.7k; ongoing institutional accumulation (e.g., MicroStrategy +3,081 BTC) provides a structural demand floor, yet upside needs 111,966 reclaimed. On-chain data: Elevated aggregate OI, altcoin OI at records pre-purge; rising ETH dominance in perps; large USDT inter-exchange flows — leveraged, break-sensitive environment. Expected impact: Technical NEUTRAL SELL bias persists without a catalyst; credibility improves above 111,966, otherwise sub-110,710 risks an extension to 108k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Compressed market: HTF uptrend, LTF selling pressure around 110.7k. - Trend: short-term neutral-to-bearish, longer-term constructive. - Key setup: range-trade 110.7k–112k; trigger = close > 111,966 (squeeze) or < 110,710 (sell-off). - Macro: rate-cut hopes vs rising inflation expectations keep volatility high. Stay disciplined: let 110.7k–111.97k resolve and manage risk proactively. 🧭