QQQ Pure LottoInvesco QQQ Trust Series INASDAQ:QQQpakoumalMomentum indicators (like stoch/RSI) are mid-range, so still room either way The dominant developing pattern is an ascending triangle under $580 That favors a bullish breakout if buyers hold $574–$575 If ~$580 fails again, it flips into a short-term pullback What we’ve seen since mid-August looks more like a round bottom recovery than an upside-down “U” The “handle-like” action under $580 is tight & flat, not sloping down That aligns more with an ascending triangle (bullish) than an inverted cup & handle (bearish) If this were a true inverted cup & handle, we’d now expect a weak “handle” bounce that fails near resistance before rolling over The bounce off $559 hasn’t been shallow; instead, price has climbed into a rising channel That channel is more characteristic of a bearish rising wedge than a handle Rising wedges often resolve lower, but they do climb higher first, sometimes to retest prior resistance ($580–$583) A close above $583 on volume invalidates the bear case Negates the “cup” idea & confirms a breakout A breakdown of the rising wedge (below ~$572 then $568) Aligns with the inverted cup & handle thesis and target ~$559 Right now, a bearish wedge inside the potential inverted cup & handle If it breaks down, it validates the bearish case If it powers through $583, it flips back to bullish continuation Trading a bearish setup inside an uptrend context Inverted cup + wedge is bearish, but bulls still have a chance until $583 is rejected Think of 583 as the “line in the sand” 1. Bearish Case (~55% probability) Head & Shoulders + rising wedge Failure to break/close above $583 Target $568 (neckline) If sellers press, $550–$555 with a full measured move to ~$532, but may need a macro shock to hit 2. Bullish Case (≈40% probability) Strong breakout & hold above $583 Squeeze toward $590 (prior resistance) If momentum + AI narrative revives, $605–$607 Would represent a sentiment shift 3. Neutral/Chop (≈5% probability) Sideways consolidation $570–$580 Economic data this week comes mixed results in no conviction $583 is the decision point & $568 is the neckline where bears are in control NVDA earnings reaction + economic data (jobs, inflation) If rally is on weak volume, likely a bull trap The market leans bearish unless bulls can decisively close >$583