Bitcoin rebound or reversal?Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDMatthew_8888Bitcoin has moved in a volatile "first drop, then rise" pattern today, and the overall trend is fully in line with the analysis we provided yesterday afternoon. In the morning, the market first dipped slightly to test support, then entered a consolidation and correction phase around $108,800. This correction process not only digested short-term bearish selling pressure but also allowed bulls and bears to rebalance and accumulate momentum at the key support level. Eventually, it drove the price to edge up to the upper resistance range, perfectly fulfilling the expectation of "attempting a rebound after consolidation and correction". However, judging from the strength of the price action, the current market remains in a relatively weak pattern overall. On one hand, the afternoon rally failed to break through the key resistance with sufficient volume. After touching the resistance level, the price lacked sustained upward momentum, showing a pressured characteristic of "retreating slightly after a rally". On the other hand, from the perspective of the short-term moving average arrangement, the price is still constrained by the pressure of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and a clear bullish alignment has not yet been formed, indicating that market confidence in going long still needs further boosting. For the subsequent market trend, the area above $112,000 is a core watershed that determines whether the trend can reverse. This level is not only an important resistance level from the previous upward movement but also the "winning or losing line" for the recent bull-bear game. Only when Bitcoin's price can firmly stand above $112,000 and not fall below this level in subsequent pullbacks (forming an effective top-bottom conversion) can the end of the short-term weak pattern be confirmed. At that time, it will not only break the current consolidation deadlock, attract more waiting funds to enter the market for positioning, but also gradually repair market sentiment, shifting the market from "weak consolidation" to "volatile upward movement". Only then will there be a chance to launch an attack on higher resistance ranges. Until then, it is recommended to remain cautiously on the sidelines, avoid blindly chasing longs before breaking through key levels, and patiently wait for the trend to become clear.