a new trend might be forming, =SELLers looking powerful Microsoft CorporationBATS:MSFTjacesabr_real **1→4: Bullish Exhaustion Phase** - Solid uptrend from point 1 culminating in a gap up at point 4 - Strong volatility and selling immediately after the gap (potential exhaustion gap) - Point 4 marks the distribution high around $550 area **4→7: Clear Distribution & Markdown** - Series of lower highs (4→6) and lower lows (5→7) - Classic downtrend structure established - Sellers from point 4 are dominant, overwhelming any buying attempts ### Current Setup at Point 1 **Return to Origin - Now Resistance** - Price has returned to the origin of the initial buying (point 1) - What was previous support should now act as resistance - Sellers from point 4 meeting the original buyers from point 1 - sellers likely to win ### Technical Confluences **Momentum Indicators**: - Regular bearish divergence on both RSI and MFI - Price making lower highs while RSI/MFI making higher highs - Classic exhaustion signal confirming the distribution phase - Momentum failing to confirm price attempts to recover **Chaos Theory Validation**: - Price validated below green zones showing seller control - 60% probability of reaching next zone once triggered - Previous 2,500 candle backtest confirms statistical edge **Dow Theory Perspective**: - Confirmed downtrend with lower highs and lower lows - No signs of trend reversal yet - Daily timeframe shifting from bullish to bearish if support breaks **Wyckoff Analysis**: - Appears to be Phase D of distribution - Current bounce could be Last Point of Supply (LPSY) - Sign of Weakness (SOW) already shown in the move to point 7 ### Expected Price Action With trend alignment, resistance overhead, and regular bearish divergence showing exhaustion of buying pressure, probability favors continuation of the markdown phase. The divergence confirms that buyers are weakening despite attempts to push higher.