TIFFANY MAY, DAVID PIERSON2025年8月28日2020年12月，黎智英在获准保释仅数日后便被还押。 Yat Kai Yeung/NurPhoto, via Getty ImagesThe landmark trial of Jimmy Lai, a Hong Kong media mogul and prominent democracy campaigner, wrapped up on Thursday. But whether or not he is freed may depend more on a political decision than a legal one.对香港传媒大亨、著名民主活动人士黎智英具有里程碑意义的审判于周四结束，但他是否被释放可能更多地取决于政治决定，而不是法律裁决。The question hanging over the case is not so much whether the city’s courts will convict him — in national security cases, they almost always do. It is whether China, under pressure from foreign governments, will decide there is more to gain from keeping the outspoken publisher locked up or from letting him go.这个案件悬而未决的问题与香港的法院是否会判他有罪关系不大——在涉及国家安全的案件中，法院几乎总是会做出有罪判决。真正的问题在于，面对外国政府的压力，中国会认为如何才对中国更有利——是将这位直言不讳的出版商继续关押，还是将他释放。Mr. Lai, 77, who appeared in court this week looking thinner and tired after years behind bars, has become a symbol of how free speech has been crushed in Hong Kong since Beijing imposed a national security law on the city five years ago to quash unrest. His lawyers finished their legal arguments on Thursday, but the three national security judges are expected to take months to issue their verdict, which could send him to prison for life.现年77岁的黎智英本周出现在法庭上，经历数年牢狱后，他看起来消瘦而疲惫。自五年前北京在香港实施国家安全法以平息骚乱以来，他已成为言论自由在香港被压制的一个象征。他的律师周四结束了法律辩论，但由三名国安法官组成的合议庭预计需数月才能作出判决，他可能面临终身监禁。“We are done, then,” the judges said on Thursday morning, adding that the parties would be informed of the verdict “in good time.”法官们在周四上午表示“那么我们可以结束了”，并称将“适时”通知各方判决结果。Diplomats, reporters and supporters of Mr. Lai filled the courtroom in the final days of a trial that began in late 2023, highlighting the international scrutiny to which his case has been subjected. Court employees warned those sitting in the public gallery not to show him support, but many made heart shapes with their hands as he entered. The verdict will be followed closely by the United States and by Britain, where Mr. Lai holds citizenship.这场始于2023年底的审判进入最后阶段，外交官、记者和黎智英的支持者挤满了法庭，凸显出此案受到的国际关注。法庭工作人员警告旁听席上的民众不要向他表达支持，但当黎智英进入法庭时，许多人仍用手比划出心形手势。美国和黎智英的国籍所属国英国将密切关注判决结果。Mr. Lai smiled and waved to family members and other supporters as he entered the courtroom, and as he left.进入法庭和离开法庭时，黎智英微笑着向家人和其他支持者挥手。本月在香港，等待进入法庭旁听黎智英审判的人。The authorities have used the national security law to crack down on civil liberties that had long distinguished Hong Kong from the rest of China, such as the freedom of assembly and the press.当局利用《国家安全法》打击了长期以来使香港有别于中国其他地区的公民自由，例如集会自由和新闻自由。Mr. Lai, who founded a now-defunct pro-democracy newspaper called Apple Daily, is accused of two counts of “conspiracy to collude with foreign forces,” charges that can be punished by up to life in prison. Prosecutors have described him as the “mastermind” who orchestrated the mass antigovernment protests that swept across Hong Kong in 2019.曾创办现已停刊的亲民主报纸《苹果日报》的黎智英被控两项“串谋勾结外国势力”罪，最高可判处终身监禁。检方称他是策划2019年席卷香港的大规模反政府抗议活动的“主谋”。His trial has raised concerns among observers that Hong Kong’s courts, long vaunted for their independence, are under growing pressure from Beijing, which repeatedly made clear it regarded him as guilty. In December 2020, Hong Kong’s highest court ordered him back to jail just days after he had been granted bail, after Chinese state-backed media denounced the lower court’s decision.此案引发了观察人士的担忧，他们担心长期以独立性为傲的香港法院正面临来自北京越来越大的压力。北京一再明确表示认为他有罪。2020年12月，在他获准保释几天后，香港最高法院下令将他送回监狱，此前中国官方支持的媒体谴责了初审法院的决定。Now, given the nearly 100 percent conviction rate of national security cases in Hong Kong courts, his family and well-connected supporters have staked their hopes on a diplomatic deal to secure his release.现在，考虑到香港法院对国家安全案件的定罪率接近100%，他的家人和人脉广泛的支持者把获释的希望寄托在外交斡旋上。Earlier this month, President Trump said he would do everything he could to “save” Mr. Lai, while acknowledging that China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, “would not be exactly thrilled.”本月早些时候，特朗普总统表示将竭尽全力“营救”黎智英，同时承认中国最高领导人习近平“恐怕不会太高兴”。能否通过外交手段促成释放黎智英是对特朗普总统的一个考验。Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said that if Beijing were thinking strategically, it would release Mr. Lai as a “low-cost good will gesture” to keep relations with Washington on steadier footing.华盛顿无党派组织“捍卫民主基金会”高级中国问题研究员克雷格·辛格尔顿指出，若北京采取战略考量，释放黎智英将成为“低成本的善意姿态”，有助于维持与华盛顿关系的稳定基调。So far, though, Mr. Xi has shown little appetite for compromise. His government will likely want to make an example of Mr. Lai to demonstrate the consequences of challenging Beijing’s authority. Mr. Singleton predicted that Mr. Xi would pursue “a maximalist line” and “turn a solvable case into a White House liability that risks embarrassing” Mr. Trump, after the U.S. president said publicly that he would help Mr. Lai.然而迄今为止，习近平似乎毫无妥协之意。其政府很可能将黎智英作为典型案例，作为挑战北京权威后果的警示。辛格尔顿预测，在特朗普公开表示将协助黎智英后，习近平将采取“极端路线”，将“本可解决的案件变成白宫的负担，可能令特朗普难堪”。In practice, the Trump administration has prioritized trade stability over human rights. This month it extended a trade truce with China for another three months, in a move to avoid escalating tensions.在实践中，特朗普政府将贸易稳定置于人权之上。本月，它将与中国的贸易休战延长了三个月，以避免紧张局势升级。Mr. Trump also appeared to try and lower expectations, saying that he had merely promised to bring up Mr. Lai’s case with the Chinese, and has already done so.特朗普似乎也在试图降低外界预期，称自己仅承诺向中方提及黎智英案情，且已履行这个承诺。“Sadly, human rights no longer anchor the bilateral agenda. Export controls and industrial competition do,” Mr. Singleton said. “Lai’s case is morally clarifying, but politically marginal in a relationship now organized around strategic technology and tariffs.”“令人遗憾的是，人权不再是双边议程的重点。出口管制和工业竞争才是，”辛格尔顿说。“黎智英的案子在道德上是很明确的，但在目前围绕战略技术和关税展开的中美关系中，其政治影响力已趋边缘化。”2月，黎智英的儿子黎崇恩（左）等人在日内瓦联合国欧洲总部举行的民主与人权峰会上。Mr. Lai’s son, Sebastien Lai, began mounting a campaign lobbying international leaders for his father’s release in 2022, after the media tycoon was sentenced to more than five years in prison on a separate charge. That sentence, which some lawyers had described as unusually harsh, made Sebastian Lai skeptical of the independence of Hong Kong’s courts.2022年黎智英因另一项指控被判五年多监禁后，他的儿子黎崇恩开始游说国际领导人，希望促成父亲的获释。一些律师称，这一判决异常严厉，令黎崇恩对香港法院的独立性产生了怀疑。“That’s when I realized my father was never going to get a fair trial,” Sebastien Lai said in a recent phone interview. “I personally think that the way to get him out is through advocacy.”“那时我才意识到我父亲永远不会得到公正的审判，”黎崇恩在近期的一次电话采访中说。“我个人认为，通过倡导行动才是让他获释的途径。”Mr. Lai’s health has faltered after more than three years in detention, mostly in solitary confinement. His trial was adjourned at points, most recently so that he could be fitted with a portable heart monitor after his lawyers said that he had experienced heart palpitations. Mr. Lai also suffers from diabetes and appears to have lost weight, a far cry from the figure who once carried the nickname “Fatty Lai” among admirers and opponents.历经三年多羁押——其中大部分时间处于单独监禁，黎智英健康状况急剧恶化。他的审判多次延期，最近一次是因律师称其出现心悸症状，需佩戴便携式心脏监测仪。黎智英还患有糖尿病，他的体重明显减轻，与他的仰慕者和反对者都会使用的绰号“肥佬黎”相去甚远。The Hong Kong government has condemned what it described as “slanderous remarks” by “external forces and anti-China media” about Mr. Lai’s case as interference with the judicial process. It said that the legal proceedings are being handled in accordance with the law, that people held in custody in its correctional facilities are provided with medical support and that Mr. Lai had requested to be in solitary confinement. A lawyer in Hong Kong representing Mr. Lai did not respond to a request for comment.香港政府谴责其所称的“外部势力和反华媒体”就黎智英案所发表的“诽谤言论”是对司法程序的干涉。政府表示，法律程序正在依法处理，在其惩教设施内羁管的人员均得到了医疗支持，此外是黎智英本人要求单独监禁。黎智英在香港的代表律师没有回应置评请求。2023年，黎智英在狱中锻炼后。In court, prosecutors focused on meetings Mr. Lai had held with American politicians, messages he had exchanged with officials, and views that he had expressed in interviews with news outlets or on social media.在法庭上，检方的重点是黎智英与美国政界人士的会面、他与官员的通信，以及他在接受新闻媒体或社交媒体采访时表达的观点。Mr. Lai denies the charges and during his testimony, which ran for more than 50 days, said that he did not seek political favors from anyone overseas beyond asking them for their support for Hong Kong. His lawyer argued in closing that it was not wrong to support freedom of expression, or to exert pressure on the government in the hopes of changing its policies.黎智英否认了这些指控，并在长达50多天的庭审中表示他没有向任何海外人士寻求政治上的帮助，只是要求他们支持香港。他的律师在结案时辩称，支持言论自由，或向政府施加压力希望其改变政策，这些都没有错。Mr. Lai also faces a separate charge of conspiring to publish seditious material in Apple Daily. On the stand, he defended his intentions in running the newspaper, saying the publication reflected the values of the Hong Kong people. “All I was doing was carrying a torch to the reality,” Mr. Lai said.黎智英另外还面临一项串谋在《苹果日报》上发布煽动性材料的控罪。在证人席上，他为自己经营报纸的初衷进行辩护，称该出版物反映了香港人民的价值观。黎智英说：“我所做的，只是为了举起现实的火炬。”Some observers note that a guilty verdict could paradoxically open a window for Beijing to consider releasing him on medical grounds.一些观察家指出，有罪判决可能反而为北京打开一个窗口，使其可以考虑以医疗为由释放黎智英。“Once the Hong Kong government and Beijing have the guilty verdict in hand, they may feel more leeway to allow Lai to leave Hong Kong on medical parole,” said Thomas E. Kellogg, the executive director of the Center for Asian Law at Georgetown University. “At the end of the day, any decision on humanitarian parole would have to come from Beijing, and most likely from Xi Jinping himself.”“一旦香港政府和北京拿到有罪判决，他们可能会感到有更多余地，允许黎智英以医疗假释的形式离开香港，”乔治城大学亚洲法律中心执行主任托马斯·E·凯洛格说。“归根结底，任何关于人道主义假释的决定都必须来自北京，而且很可能来自习近平本人”。The Chinese government has occasionally responded to diplomatic pressure over human rights in the past. In 2018, after lobbying by German diplomats and the personally intervention of Angela Merkel, who was the German chancellor at the time, China allowed Liu Xia, the widow of the pro-democracy activist and writer, Liu Xiaobo, to travel to Berlin for medical reasons. Ms. Liu had lived for years under house arrest, despite never having been accused of a crime.过去，中国政府偶尔也会对人权方面的外交压力作出回应。2018年，在德国外交官的游说和时任德国总理安格拉·默克尔的亲自干预下，中国允许民运活动人士、作家刘晓波的遗孀刘霞以医疗为由前往柏林。刘霞当时已在家中被软禁多年，尽管从未被指控犯罪。Sebastien Lai said that his greatest fear is of his father dying behind bars. Mr. Trump’s recent comment was “what gives us hope that he will one day be free,” he said.黎崇恩表示，他最担心的是父亲在狱中去世。他说，特朗普最近的言论“给了我们希望，他有一天会获得自由”。Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者，报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。