Crude Oil Technical Analysis - The market needs the Fed's help

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FundamentalOverviewCrude oil found somesupport from Powell’s dovish tilt but eventually couldn’t break above some key resistancelevels and wiped out all the gains. The focus has now switched to the NFPreport due next week as that’s going to influence interest rates expectationsand the Fed’s stance.If we get strong data, we might see some short term weakness as the hawkish repricing weighs on growth expectations, but if the Fed speakers maintain their easing bias, then we could see crude oil breaking outinto new highs and likely extended the gains into the 70.00 price area on expectedhigher demand. Soft data, on the other hand, could be bearish in the short-term but as the market increases the dovish bets and the Fed eases, it should eventually support the market.Crude OilTechnical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that crude oil probed above the key resistancezone around the 64.00 handle before falling back below it as the price rejectedthe major downward trendline.The sellers will likely continue to pile in around these levels with a definedrisk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 59.77 level. Thebuyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above thetrendline to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting the 70.00 handlenext.Crude Oil TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, there’snot much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see somemore details.Crude Oil TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. Thesellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into newlows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to position for a rallyinto the major trendline targeting a breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UpcomingCatalystsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claimsfigures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.