ES Analyses, Key Zones, Setups, Bias (08/29)E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!MyAlgoIndexFundamentals for Fri, Aug 29 (ET) •08:30 — Personal Income & Outlays (incl. PCE) for July. Official BEA schedule lists this release for Aug 29, 8:30am.  •08:30 — Advance Economic Indicators (Advance Goods Trade Balance, Retail & Wholesale Inventories) — scheduled Aug 29.  •09:45 — Chicago PMI (Aug). Usual release time 9:45am; calendars list Aug 29.   •10:00 — U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final Aug). Institute notes next data Fri Aug 29 at 10am.  •Context — Next FOMC: Sep 16–17. Recent Fed commentary leans toward a potential cut dependent on incoming data (e.g., Waller remarks today).   Implication: 8:30 data can set the day’s bias; 9:45–10:00 can create a second impulse. Use our macro blackout (±10m) rule around these times. Structure & Bias (multi-TF snapshot) •HTF (D/4H/1H): constructive uptrend with HH/HL; price is consolidating just under overhead supply. •LTF (30m/15m/5m): Asia range formed near the highs; New-York PM printed a marginal higher high and stalled. •Working bias: Neutral-to-bullish above the pivot cluster; flips bearish only on a 15m close back through the pivot (see Zones). Key Zones (why they matter) Numbers are rounded to the nearest quarter-point when appropriate. Overhead supply / breakout gate 1.6516.75–6523 = AS.H → NYPM.H band (resting liquidity / prior sweep zone). Acceptance above unlocks extensions. Acceptance / flip cluster (the hinge) 2) 6512.5–6516.75 = Asia range. 3) 6506.75–6508.5 (with PDH ~6507.50) = prior session highs & intraday BOS retest (hard pivot). → Hold above = constructive; lose it on a 15m bearish close = momentum shift down. Supports below (ladder) 4) ~6497 = intraday LL / demand edge. 5) ~6492 = micro shelf / HVN pivot. 6) 6480–6484 = prior NY AM low / prior swing shelf (first deeper magnet). 7) 6468–6472 = prior day range floor cluster (PDL/PMH vicinity) — next hard liquidity. Upside magnets •~6534–6536 = 1h measured move/extension cluster. •~6553–6556 = 30m 1.272 ext / HVN edge. •~6579–6582 = 1.618 ext / exhaustion pocket. (All targets respect our “Hard Liquidity first” rule; then extensions.) A++ Setups (score ≥9 only) A) Breakout-Acceptance Long (primary) •Trigger: 30m close above 6516.75, then 15m MOS holds above the box; wait for a 5m confirmation (micro BOS or clean retest that doesn’t reclaim the box). •Entry zone: 6518–6520 on the retest/impulse continuation. •Initial SL: 6–8 pts (tightest of: under the 15m trigger bar or below 6512). •TPs: •TP1: +15 pts → ~6534–6536 (first hard magnet/extension). •TP2: ~6553–6556 (next HTF zone). •TP3 (runner): trail via 15m/30m closes toward ~6579–6582. •Management: Scale ½ at TP1; move SL→BE only after structure break or 15m/30m close through TP1, then trail by 15m/30m swings. •Disqualifiers: 15m closes back inside ≤6516 after trigger; macro-print within blackout; clear Liquidity-Wall ≤5 pts above entry that blocks TP1 ≥15 pts. B) Rejection → Breakdown Short (secondary) •Trigger path 1 (fade failure): Wick into 6516.75–6523 and a 15m bearish close back inside the box plus 5m confirmation (CHoCH / OB tap). •Trigger path 2 (momentum break): 15m close below 6506–6508 (PDH/NYAM.H cluster) → 5m retest failure of 6508–6510. •Entry zone: 6514–6518 (fade) or 6508–6511 (retest short). •Initial SL: 6–8 pts (above 6521 on fades; above 6516 on retests). •TPs: •TP1: ~6492–6495 (≥15 pts and a hard pivot). •TP2: ~6480–6484 (NY AM shelf). •TP3: ~6468–6472 (prior range floor); trail by 15m/30m. •Mandatory (bearish) rule: needs both 15m bearish confirmation and 5m alignment before entry (per protocol). •Disqualifiers: 30m re-acceptance above 6512.5–6516.75 after entry; macro blackout. Execution Rules (strict) •Time windows: 9:45–11:30 ET and 13:30–15:30 ET only. •Confirmations: 30m trigger → 15m MOS → 5m close; bearish trades require 15m bearish close. •Risk: SL = min(under 15m trigger bar, 6–8 pts). Daily hard stop −2R; lock day at +3R. •Targets: TP1 ≥ +15 pts at a Hard Liquidity level; front-run 1–2 pts. •No trades inside macro blackout windows or if Liquidity-Wall blocks TP1.