While the BJP-led NDA is looking to increase its tally in the Rajya Sabha significantly by the end of the year, beginning with the Upper House elections for 37 seats in 10 states on March 16, the ruling alliance is deliberating on various related questions, ranging from the number and geography of the seats to the selection of candidates.According to sources, key faces in the NDA’s national leadership – especially from the BJP, Janata Dal (United) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) – have been holding discussions over filling their respective quotas among the 37 seats that will fall vacant in April. Another 34 vacancies are set to arise in the Upper House over the course of the remainder of this year.Advertisement“The minimum number of Assembly seats, as per the foundational formula of a particular ally’s legislators in the House, is clear in states where the NDA is in majority, such as Maharashtra and Bihar. But other states, where the BJP or NDA is in power with a relatively smaller margin of seats, such as Odisha and Haryana, are certainly a cause for concern for us,” a senior BJP leader said.“As far as the BJP is concerned, several factors are in play when it comes to choosing a candidate for elevation to the Rajya Sabha. Avoiding repetition of members who are about to complete their second consecutive term totalling 12 years, rewarding organisational hands such as the current national vice-presidents and general secretaries, a quota of sorts for leaders preferred by the RSS as well as the cut-off age of 75, are important considerations for eligibility,” another BJP leader said.An analysis of the 37 impending vacancies across 10 states shows the NDA is set to bag at least 19 seats in the March elections. As it stands, the NDA has 133 MPs in the 245-member Rajya Sabha, with the BJP itself accounting for 103 seats – 20 short of the 123-seat majority mark.AdvertisementThe number of votes a candidate requires depends on the number of vacancies and the strength of the state Assembly in question. In the event of a single vacancy, a simple majority (50% plus one) is enough to secure the Rajya Sabha berth, under the Election Commission’s Conduct of Election Rules, 1961. In states with multiple vacancies, the required number of votes is total Assembly strength divided by the number of vacancies plus one vote. If for any seat, candidates fail to get the specified number, the second- and third-preference votes will be taken into account.For instance, in Maharashtra, where the BJP-led Mahayuti has 235 MLAs in the 288-member Assembly, the NDA is likely to claim six of the seven vacant seats. Here, each vacant seat will require the support of 41 MLAs. In Bihar, where the “magic number” is 49 MLAs, the NDA is in a position to win four of the five seats but, sources say, it may stake claim on all five.In some other NDA-ruled states, however, the scenario is more complicated. In Odisha, where the BJP is in power with around 80 MLAs including its allies, the party is closer to the required figure of 37 MLAs per seat only in the cases of two of the four vacancies. With 65 MLAs on the Opposition side, including the Biju Janata Dal (BJD)’s 51 MLAs, at least one seat will go to the principal Opposition with the final seat up for grabs for both sides.In Assam, the NDA’s 86 MLAs would enable it to get two of the three vacant seats, given the required figure of 42 MLAs per Upper House berth. But in the remaining seat, the Opposition’s 39 legislators are falling three short of the “magic number”. Similarly, in Haryana, the NDA has 50 MLAs, five more than the required figure of 45. At 37 MLAs, the Opposition is short by eight, as per the formula.“Going strictly by the formula as well as the internal dynamics of the NDA, it is safe to assume that an approach similar to the 2:2 seat allocation for the five Rajya Sabha seats in Bihar, where the remaining one will require political manoeuvring and may likely go to an NDA constituent such as the Rashtriya Lok Manch or the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), will be followed in other NDA-ruled states as well,” a senior NDA leader said.“Maharashtra will be an interesting case in point given the developments around the two NCP factions and their stalwart Sharad Pawar being also among the retiree MPs,” said a BJP insider.BJP sources said the names of several key probables were doing the rounds for the upcoming Upper House polls, with the party likely to release its list around Holi in early March.“Newly-elected BJP national president Nitin Nabin, whose new team is likely to be in place by the end of this month, is certainly among the frontrunners for a Rajya Sabha berth from the BJP’s quota. Others are from among the 11 national BJP vice-presidents and the eight national general secretaries (including the post of national general secretary organisation). Many prominent faces who have served in gubernatorial and bureaucratic roles are also said to be among the contenders,” a party source said.