JPYUSD 1H Outlook Today: Range Breakdown ConfirmedJAPANESE YEN / U.S. DOLLARFX_IDC:JPYUSDHenrybillionJPYUSD 1H Outlook Today: Range Breakdown Confirmed, Bearish Continuation Favored Below 0.00646–0.00650 JPYUSD on the 1H chart has shifted from an earlier bullish climb into a clear distribution phase (large range box), then printed a decisive breakdown. Price is now consolidating inside a smaller post-break range around 0.006447, which typically behaves like a “bear flag” before the next leg lower. As long as price remains capped below the broken range and cannot reclaim key retracement levels, the higher-probability play today is to sell rallies and target the next supports around 0.00640 → 0.00638. Market Structure and Trend Context Phase 1: Strong bullish push (left side). Phase 2: Distribution inside the large box (multiple rejections, failed follow-through). Phase 3: Breakdown and impulsive drop (right side). Phase 4: Tight consolidation (small box), suggesting sellers are pausing, not reversing. This is a classic sequence: impulsive move down, then sideways compression, then continuation. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance (Sell Zones) 0.00646–0.00647: nearest supply (top of current consolidation) 0.00649–0.00650: first major retest zone (breakdown retest area) 0.00654–0.00656: upper distribution ceiling (major invalidation area) Support (Targets) 0.00644–0.00643: current range floor (breakdown trigger level) 0.00642: minor support (intraday step) 0.00640: key psychological + measured move target 0.00638: extension target (next bearish pocket) Fibonacci Map (Simple and Practical) Use Fibonacci from the last visible swing high inside the large box (around 0.00656) down to the breakdown low near 0.00644: Retracement levels (where pullbacks commonly fail): 0.382: ~0.00649 0.50: ~0.00650 0.618: ~0.00651 Downside projections (where continuation often lands): 1.272 extension: ~0.00638 1.618 extension: ~0.00634 This Fibonacci structure supports a sell-the-rally approach while price stays below 0.00649–0.00650. EMA + RSI Filters (Execution Rules) EMA (20/50 on 1H) Bearish continuation is favored when price is below EMA20 and EMA20 is below EMA50. The best shorts typically form when price retests EMA20/EMA50 near 0.00646–0.00650 and rejects. RSI (1H) Downtrend strength is confirmed when RSI repeatedly fails below 50. If RSI cannot regain and hold above 50 during pullbacks, rallies are more likely traps than reversals. High-Probability Trading Plans (Intraday) Strategy 1: Sell the Range Top (Primary Plan) Bias: bearish while below 0.00649–0.00650 Entry zone: 0.00646–0.00647 (aggressive) or 0.00649–0.00650 (safer retest) Trigger: bearish rejection candle on 15M/1H, failed close above the zone Stop: above 0.00650 (tight) or above 0.00651–0.00652 (safer) Targets: 0.00644 → 0.00642 → 0.00640 → 0.00638 This is the cleanest setup because it aligns with structure + Fib retracement. Strategy 2: Sell the Breakdown (Momentum Continuation) Condition: 1H close below 0.00644 Entry: sell breakdown or sell the retest back into 0.00644 Stop: above 0.00646 Targets: 0.00642 → 0.00640 → 0.00638 Rule: avoid selling the very bottom of an extended candle. Let it break, then retest. Strategy 3: Countertrend Long (Only If Reclaim Holds) This is lower probability unless structure flips. Condition: reclaim and hold above 0.00650 (1H close + retest) Entry: retest hold above 0.00650 Stop: back below 0.00647 Targets: 0.00654 → 0.00656 Without a reclaim, longs are just range scalps against trend. What Would Invalidate the Bearish Bias Today? A strong push above 0.00650–0.00651 with acceptance (multiple 1H closes) and a successful retest holding it as support. Until that happens, the current consolidation is more likely a pause before continuation lower. Today’s Checklist Below 0.00646–0.00650: prioritize selling rallies. Clean break below 0.00644: continuation toward 0.00640 is favored. Watch Fib retest zones for the highest-quality entries, not the middle of the range.