EURUSD 1H Analysis Today: Bearish Structure IntactEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDHenrybillionEURUSD 1H Analysis Today: Bearish Structure Intact, Selling Rallies Below 1.1800–1.1870 EURUSD on the 1H chart remains in a clear downtrend: lower highs, lower lows, and repeated failure to reclaim prior breakdown zones. The current price is consolidating around 1.1777, but the broader structure suggests this is more likely a pause before continuation rather than a full reversal. The chart highlights two key supply areas: a major upper supply near 1.1865–1.1875 and a near-term supply near 1.1788–1.1796. As long as price stays capped below these zones, the path of least resistance remains down toward 1.1760 → 1.1740 and potentially lower. Market Structure and Price Action Strong bearish impulse into the 1.1780 handle, followed by a small rebound and tight range. The bounce failed to flip structure bullish, and price is still trading under previous distribution. This is typical “bear flag / distribution” behavior on 1H: sideways-to-up correction inside a larger downtrend. If buyers cannot hold above the near supply zone, sellers usually regain control with a push to sweep the recent lows. Key Resistance and Support Levels Resistance (Sell Zones) 1.1788–1.1796: first supply / intraday sell zone (the most important level for today) 1.1808–1.1820: secondary resistance (breakdown continuation area) 1.1865–1.1875: major supply zone (higher-timeframe ceiling; only relevant if a strong squeeze happens) Support (Targets / Bounce Zones) 1.1770–1.1760: first support (range floor) 1.1750–1.1740: key downside target zone (projected continuation area) 1.1725–1.1710: extended target if 1.1740 breaks cleanly 1.1700: psychological level (only if momentum expands) Fibonacci Framework (Practical Use Today) Anchor Fib from the latest bearish swing high to the swing low of the impulse leg: The 0.382–0.618 retracement typically aligns with the 1.1788–1.1820 area on this structure. That is why the 1.1788–1.1796 zone is critical: if price retests it and rejects, it often triggers the next leg down. For downside projections, watch extension targets: 1.272 / 1.618 extension commonly aligns with the next support pocket around 1.1750–1.1725, depending on your exact swing anchors. EMA + RSI Filters (Execution Rules) EMA (20/50 on 1H) Bearish bias is favored while price stays below EMA20 and EMA20 remains below EMA50. Best shorts occur when price pulls back into EMA20/EMA50 + supply zone and prints rejection. RSI (1H) Downtrend strength is confirmed when RSI holds below 50 on rallies. If RSI spikes above 50 but price still rejects supply, it often becomes a “fake strength” trap before continuation down. Watch for RSI bullish divergence only at major supports (1.1760 or 1.1740). Divergence at mid-range is weaker. High-Probability Trading Plans (Intraday) Strategy 1: Sell the Retest of Supply (Primary Plan) Bias: bearish while below 1.1796 Entry zone: 1.1788–1.1796 Trigger: bearish rejection candle on 15M/1H, failure to close above zone Stop: above 1.1808 (tight) or above 1.1820 (safer) Targets: 1.1770 → 1.1760 → 1.1750/1.1740 This is the cleanest setup because it aligns structure + supply + typical Fib retracement behavior. Strategy 2: Breakdown Continuation (If Support Fails) Condition: 1H close below 1.1760 Entry: sell the breakdown, or sell the retest back into 1.1760 Stop: above 1.1775–1.1780 Targets: 1.1750 → 1.1740 → 1.1725 This is a momentum plan. Avoid selling late if the candle is already overstretched; wait for retest. Strategy 3: Countertrend Long (Only as a Short-Term Scalp) This is lower probability because it fights the 1H trend. Only consider it if: Price sweeps 1.1760/1.1740 and instantly reclaims, plus RSI divergence forms. Entry: reclaim + higher low Stop: under the sweep low Targets: back to 1.1788–1.1796 (take profits quickly) What Would Flip the Bias Bullish? A clean 1H close above 1.1808–1.1820, followed by a successful retest holding as support. Without that, any bounce is still “pullback inside a downtrend.” Today’s Checklist Below 1.1796: prioritize selling rallies. Clean break below 1.1760: continuation toward 1.1740 is favored. Only respect longs if you see a sweep-and-reclaim at major support with clear RSI divergence.