The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped below 6%, and to the lowest level since September 2025. The break marks a meaningful psychological and financial shift for the housing market. Not long ago, rates were pressing toward 7%, and just one year ago the same rate stood at 6.89%. That’s nearly a full percentage point decline in borrowing costs over the past 12 months.From an affordability standpoint, that move matters. On a $400,000 mortgage, a drop from 6.89% to 5.99% can lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars, improving purchasing power and potentially bringing sidelined buyers back into the market.The decline largely reflects falling Treasury yields as markets price in slower growth and easing inflation pressures. Mortgage rates tend to track longer-term yields, so softer economic expectations have translated into cheaper financing costs.That said, rates below 6% don’t automatically translate into a housing boom. Inventory remains tight in many regions, and home prices are still elevated. But the psychological shift below 6% is important.If rates can hold under 6% — or move lower — the spring and summer housing seasons could see renewed activity. If yields turn back higher, however, mortgage rates could quickly follow.For now, the trend in rates is down — and compared to 6.89% a year ago, that’s a notable change in the landscape.Mortgage rates tend to be influenced by the US 10 year yield. Looking at the chart, the 10-year yield is now testing a critical technical level at 4.013%, which marks the 200-day moving average. This level carries added weight, as yields have not sustained a move below the 200-day MA since March 7, 2022.TheA decisive break — and more importantly, a sustained move — below 4.013% would shift the broader bias more firmly to the downside and signal a potential change in longer-term momentum.On the downside, the next key support comes in near the 2025 low at 3.86%. A move below that would open the door toward the 2024 low at 3.599%, which stands as a deeper structural support level.In short, the 200-day MA is the line in the sand. Stay above and the longer-term range holds. Break below and downside targets come into clearer focus. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.