Jan jobs data was a surprise and may be appropriate to hold rates if it continues in FebAlso possible that Jan jobs data was noise and would still argue for a cut in March if Feb jobs data is weakIt is possible labor market has pivoted to a more sound footing after a weak 2025Consider underlying inflation excluding the impact of tariffs to be close to 2%"No dismissing" weak job creation of 2025 but also true that economic activity has been stronger than expectedConsider his support for a March cut a "coin flip" that will rely heavily on Feb jobs dataSmoothing through impact of gov't shutdown, expect GDP will have grown around 2% from Q4 2025 through Q1 2026 with consumer spending still solid and industrial activity picking upThis guy has sufficiently debased himself and is trying to pivot back to being a serious economist after he was left at the alter in the decision for Fed Chair.In any case, his March vote will surely be immaterial as market pricing for a cut at the March 18 meeting is just 1.2% and doesn't rise to 50% until June when a new Fed chair takes over.More:There are reasons including AI to think the hiring may remain weakHard to interpret recent initial jobless claims dataAI is diffusing so fast it is easier to see what jobs might go away before it is clear what jobs may be createdCompanies are still trying to determine how AI may reduce labor demand, or similarly, allow workers to be repurposedThe growth of productivity in the past year or so is not from AIChanges in working arrangements post-COVID may be adding to productivity, among other thingsUSD/JPY is down 44 pips to 154.63. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.