NASDAQ 1H - Recovering From 22,300 Lows, Bear OB at 23K Is TestNASDAQ Composite IndexNASDAQ_DLY:IXICDeltaSpeedEdge🔍 NASDAQ COMPOSITE — 1H SMC Analysis | Feb 23, 2026 Monday Market Outlook | US Market Opens Today Price is at 22,886 — bouncing strongly from the 22,300 lows. But before bulls get excited, there is a major Bear OB sitting just 114 points above. This week's direction gets decided right here. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 WHAT HAPPENED — THE FULL STORY ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ From the 23,900 Strong High, NASDAQ printed a textbook Smart Money distribution: → CHoCH confirmed bearish at the top → Multiple bearish BOS all the way down → Swept lows at 22,300 with a liquidity grab ⚡ → Internal CHoCH now confirmed BULLISH from lows → Price recovering with internal BOS to the upside This is the classic SMC sequence: distribute at highs → raid liquidity at lows → recover. The question now is whether this is a full reversal or just a relief bounce before continuation lower. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📐 MTF BIAS — 2/2 SPLIT ⚠️ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 15m → BULLISH ✅ 1H → BULLISH ✅ 4H → BEARISH ❌ 1D → BEARISH ❌ Exact same setup as Bitcoin right now. Short term momentum is recovering but the bigger timeframes 4H and 1D remain bearish. This means: The recovery from 22,300 is REAL short term. But the bigger trend has NOT reversed yet. This split is actually healthy — it tells us we are in a retracement phase inside a larger bearish structure. Smart money is likely distributing into this recovery. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟥 THE WALL — BEAR OB 23,000–23,150 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Only 114 points above current price sits the most important zone on this chart — the Bear OB at 23,000–23,150. This zone: - Was the origin of the last major bearish BOS - Aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement - Is where institutional sellers were active - Price has not tested it since breaking below First test of a Bear OB after a liquidity sweep is historically the highest probability rejection point. Watch this zone very carefully as US market opens today. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🟦 THE FOUNDATION — BULL OB 22,400–22,550 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The blue Bull OB at 22,400–22,550 is what caught price after the 22,300 liquidity sweep. This zone: - Sits in the Discount Zone - Provided the CHoCH confirmation - Is the key support for any pullback this week - Must hold for the recovery narrative to continue If price pulls back to this OB and holds — it becomes a high probability long setup with the 15m/1H bias still bullish. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 TWO SCENARIOS THIS WEEK ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 SCENARIO 1 — REJECTION AT BEAR OB (Higher Probability given 4H/1D bearish) Price taps 23,000–23,150 Bear OB → rejection → pullback to 22,400–22,550 Bull OB → if holds, clean long opportunity from Discount Zone Target: back toward 23,000 Stop: below 22,300 lows 📌 SCENARIO 2 — BEAR OB BROKEN BULLISHLY Price closes 1H candle ABOVE 23,150 with strong volume → 4H bias begins to shift → next targets: - 23,400 (0.382 Fib) - 23,600 (0.618 Fib) - 23,900 Strong High (full swing reclaim) Only this scenario changes the bigger picture to bullish. Until then — swing remains bearish. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📅 MONDAY OUTLOOK — KEY LEVELS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔴 Resistance: 23,000–23,150 (Bear OB) ← WATCH 🟡 Current: 22,886 🟦 Support: 22,400–22,550 (Bull OB) 🔻 Last Low: 22,300 (must NOT break for bulls) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📝 WEEKLY BIAS SUMMARY ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ Bigger picture: BEARISH (4H + 1D) ⚡ Short term: BULLISH recovery in progress 🎯 Best setup: Wait for Bear OB reaction at 23,000–23,150 before any decision ❌ Avoid: Chasing longs at 22,886 — 114 points from major resistance is not an entry ✅ Best long zone: 22,400–22,550 if pullback comes and Bull OB holds The Bear OB at 23,000 is the line in the sand this week. How price reacts there tells us everything about the weeks ahead. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 Powered by SMC Ultimate Pro — OB | BB | FVG | Sweeps | Structure | Fib | MTF Bias