Global Supply, China Demand, and the Soybean OutlookSoybean FuturesCBOT_DL:ZS1!EdgeClearGlobal Flows, Policy Risk, and the Headlines Driving ZS Soybeans futures trade under the ticker ZS and represent one of the most globally interconnected agricultural contracts. Price is primarily influenced by United States acreage and yield expectations, South American production, export demand from China, currency movements, biofuel policy, and freight dynamics along major river systems. The most important recurring reports for traders include the United States Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, commonly referred to as WASDE, the Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports, weekly Export Sales data, and Brazil and Argentina crop updates from agencies such as CONAB in Brazil. Weather models during the United States growing season and during the South American summer are also critical drivers of volatility. On the global stage, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina remain the dominant exporters. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the largest exporter in recent years, while China remains by far the largest importer, typically accounting for more than sixty percent of global soybean trade. Any shift in Chinese crush margins, hog herd dynamics, or trade policy has an outsized impact on price discovery in ZS. Recent sentiment has been shaped by several specific developments. In late 2025, persistent dryness across parts of central Brazil raised concerns about yield potential during early pod setting, contributing to risk premium being priced into futures. At the same time, renewed tension in the Black Sea region and ongoing instability in parts of the Middle East increased broader commodity risk appetite, spilling over into grains as funds added exposure across the agricultural complex. In December 2025, soybeans came under pressure after updated Brazilian production estimates pointed to better than feared output, while Argentine weather improved with timely rains. The United States dollar also firmed on stronger economic data, weighing on export competitiveness. Additionally, weaker Chinese crush margins and reports of slower import pacing added to the bearish tone. In early February 2026, headlines shifted after the United States Department of Agriculture reported daily flash sales of U.S. soybeans to China. The purchases were viewed as state backed buying amid renewed trade engagement, reinforcing expectations that Beijing was actively securing U.S. supply despite Brazil’s advancing harvest. The confirmation of Chinese demand forced a repricing of export expectations and triggered initiative buying, shifting short term order flow back to the upside. Going forward, traders should monitor additional USDA flash sales to China, updates tied to the U.S. China trade communication, and any policy signals that suggest acceleration or pause in Chinese purchasing activity. These are the macro headlines most likely to influence price in the near term. What the Market Has Done • Since 2024, the market has been in a large sideways range until April 2025, where the market started to compress as buyers stepped up bids and sellers stepped down offers within the range. Buyers were able to overwhelm the offers and the market broke out of the compression in October 2025, auctioning up to 1190 (daily level 2). This breakout coincided with mounting concerns about Brazilian dryness and elevated geopolitical tension that lifted the broader commodity complex. • Buyers attempted to hold above 1140, which marked the high of the multi year range, through November 2025, but failed. Sellers took back control and auctioned prices back down within the larger multi year range, down to 1055 in the vicinity of the October 2025 VPOC, where buyers stepped up to defend. The December 2025 selloff aligned with improved South American rainfall forecasts, firmer United States dollar conditions, and softer Chinese demand signals. • From the last week of December into January 2026, the market balanced and formed a bid block, rotating within value as participants established acceptance near the lows. • In the first week of February, buyers initiated and the market imbalanced out of the January 2026 VA after the United States Department of Agriculture reported daily flash sales of U.S. soybeans to China. The announcement came amid renewed trade dialogue and reports that Chinese state buyers were actively securing U.S. cargoes despite Brazil’s advancing harvest. The confirmation of large export sales shifted near term demand expectations and forced short covering, allowing price to reclaim 1135 and rotate back into the offer block with pace. What to Expect in the Coming Weeks Key level to watch is 1140, which aligns with the November 2025 VAL and the offer block low. Bullish Scenario • If buyers are able to defend 1140 at the offer block low, expect the market to move up to 1190 (daily level 2), where sellers are expected to respond. • If price breaks and accepts above daily level 2, expect continuation toward 1220 at the June 2024 VPOC. This would be significant, as it would mark the first return to that level since June 2024 and confirm a structural shift in control to buyers. Neutral Scenario • If the market approaches the edges at 1190 on the top and 1140 on the bottom without pace and volume, expect possible false breaks at the edges and reversion back into the offer block range. • Expect a two way auction within the offer block range as the market establishes value higher, with rotational activity dominating until a catalyst provides expansion. Bearish Scenario • If buyers are not able to defend 1140, expect long liquidation and a move back down through the current month LVA toward 1070 in the vicinity of the bid block and trend line. • At that level, expect buyers to respond, but failure there would open the door for a deeper rotation back toward 1055 (Oct 2025 VPOC). Conclusion Soybeans are trading at a macro sensitive inflection. Technically, 1140 defines whether buyers maintain initiative or lose control back into balance. Fundamentally, the dominant driver is sovereign level demand and trade policy, particularly confirmed Chinese purchases of U.S. supply and the tone of bilateral trade communication. If additional USDA flash sales confirm continued Chinese buying, the technical structure supports acceptance above daily level 2 and continuation toward the June 2024 VPOC. If demand headlines fade, the market risks reverting back into prior balance. Watch the headlines, then watch the response at key levels. That reaction will reveal whether this move is repositioning or true structural change. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk. Acronyms: C - Composite w - Weekly m - Monthly VA - Value Area VAH - Value Area High VAL - Value Area Low VPOC - Volume Point of Control LVN - Low Value Node HVN - High Value Node LVA - Low Value Area SP - Single print ATH - All time high