AARON KROLIK2026年2月24日去年上海车展上的比亚迪展台。比亚迪股价较去年5月的高点已下跌逾35%。 Andrea Verdelli for The New York TimesBy almost every metric, the Chinese carmaker BYD looks unstoppable.从几乎所有指标来看，中国汽车制造商比亚迪都势不可挡。After a decade of struggling to establish itself in the automobile industry, BYD has surpassed Tesla to become the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer. The company’s sales are rapidly expanding in Europe and Latin America, and new and potentially lucrative markets like Canada could soon open to it.在汽车行业艰难打拼十多年以站稳脚跟后，比亚迪如今已超越特斯拉，成为全球最大的电动汽车生产商。该公司在欧洲和拉丁美洲的销量迅速扩张，加拿大等新兴且利润潜力巨大的市场也可能很快向其敞开大门。But investors are cooling on BYD’s ascent from a little-known battery maker to the top of the automotive world’s fast-growing segment. The company’s stock has fallen roughly 40 percent from its peak last May, making it among the hardest-hit names in a broader sell-off in Chinese E.V. stocks that accelerated last week after companies reported weak sales numbers for January.比亚迪从一家默默无闻的电池厂商一路攀升至汽车行业这一高速增长赛道的顶端，投资者对它的热情却在降温。该公司股价较去年5月的高点已下跌约40%，成为此轮中国电动汽车股票全面抛售潮中受冲击最严重的公司之一。上周多家企业公布1月销量疲软数据后，抛售势头进一步加剧。Intense competition is crushing profit margins, government subsidies are vanishing, and faster production cycles mean that no company can hold a lead for long.激烈的竞争正在挤压利润空间，政府补贴逐步消失，而更快的生产周期意味着没有哪家企业能长期保持领先。BYD is emblematic of how Chinese electric vehicle companies are becoming victims of their own success. The domestic market, fueled partly by government subsidies, has grown rapidly, but Chinese companies are “maxing out the number of people for whom it makes sense” to buy one, said John Paul MacDuffie, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.比亚迪的处境象征了中国电动汽车企业如何成为自身成功的受害者。宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授约翰·保罗·麦克杜菲表示，在政府补贴推动下，中国国内市场快速扩张，但中国企业已经“把有合理需求的人群开发到了极限”。Sales are concentrated in major cities where charging infrastructure is more developed, while owning an electric vehicle simply isn’t practical in much of the rest of the country. Now, BYD and other carmakers must convert one-time buyers into repeat customers, building the kind of long-term brand relationships that more established automakers have relied on.电动汽车销量主要集中在充电基础设施更完善的大城市，而在国内其他大部分地区，拥有电动汽车并不现实。如今，比亚迪和其他车企必须把一次性买家转化为复购客户，建立起成熟车企所依赖的长期品牌黏性。“BYD has grown so fast that they’re running out of new domestic customers,” Mr. MacDuffie said.“比亚迪增长太快，国内新增客户即将枯竭，”麦克杜菲说。The challenges of China’s E.V. market started to surface last month. After growing 28 percent last year, BYD’s electric vehicle deliveries in January fell about 33 percent from a year earlier. Overall sales of new electric vehicles fell nearly 20 percent, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.中国电动汽车市场的挑战在上个月开始显现。在去年增长28%之后，比亚迪1月电动汽车交付量同比下降约33%。据中国汽车工业协会数据，全国新能源汽车整体销量下降近20%。BYD did not respond to a request for comment. The company attributed the decline to weak domestic demand, according to a statement posted on WeChat.比亚迪未回应置评请求。该公司在微信发布的一份声明中将销量下滑归因于国内需求疲软。The slowing growth coincides with a reduction in Chinese government subsidies. For years, Beijing waived its 10 percent tax on new car purchases. But this year, it reimposed the tax at half the original rate. The full tax is expected to return after 2027.增长放缓与中国政府补贴收紧同步出现。多年来，中国政府对新车购置免征10%的购置税，但今年恢复征收原税率一半的税额，全额购置税预计将在2027年后恢复。Another factor is the constant influx of new competition. In 2025, nearly 400 electric vehicle models were for sale in China, more than double the number in 2019, according to JATO, an automotive market research firm. More than 100 of those were released in the past two years.另一个因素是新竞争者不断涌入。汽车市场研究机构JATO数据显示，2025年中国市场在售电动汽车车型近400款，较2019年翻了一倍多，其中逾百款是过去两年推出的。Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, said the industry was entering a wartime period. The number of car companies will have to shrink from hundreds to just a handful for the industry to be sustainable in the long run, he said.华盛顿智库战略与国际问题研究中心高级顾问斯科特·肯尼迪表示，该行业正进入一种战争状态。他称，要实现行业长期可持续发展，车企数量必须从数百家缩减到寥寥数家。中国宁波的一家吉利工厂。中国汽车制造商建造大型工厂，接连推出新车型，寄望于最终能用规模弥补利润萎缩的缺口。Fierce competition among carmakers has pushed prices into a downward spiral known in China as “involution,” in which companies keep cutting costs and adding features just to survive, even when it hurts everyone’s bottom line. Carmakers built huge factories and rolled out one new model after another, betting that volume would eventually make up for shrinking profits.车企间的激烈竞争将价格推入下行螺旋，也就是中国所说的“内卷”：企业为求生存不断削减成本、增加配置，即便这会损害所有人的利润。车企们建造巨型工厂，一款接一款推出新车型，指望最终能用规模弥补利润萎缩的缺口。The country is building a new kind of automotive industry, said Tu Le, a transportation and technology analyst — one that looks less like Detroit and more like Silicon Valley.交通与科技分析师涂乐表示，中国正在打造一种全新的汽车产业——它更像硅谷，而不是底特律。Automotive cycles now resemble those of consumer electronics, with new models and feature changes released every year. While Ford Motor’s F-series truck has been the best-selling vehicle in America for the past 40 years, the top spot in China over the past few years has been held by either BYD, Geely or Tesla. When preferences change that fast, factories built for boom times don’t scale back as quickly, leaving excess capacity.汽车迭代周期如今已接近消费电子产品，每年都会推出新车型和新功能。福特F系列皮卡过去40年蝉联美国最畅销车型，中国市场近几年的销量冠军则在比亚迪、吉利、特斯拉之间轮换。消费偏好变化如此之快，为繁荣时期建造的工厂难以快速收缩，进而造成产能过剩。Mike Smitka, an automotive industry expert and emeritus professor at Washington and Lee University, estimated that 40 percent of China’s automotive production capacity was unused.华盛顿与李大学荣休教授、汽车行业专家迈克·斯密特卡估计，中国汽车产能中有40%处于闲置状态。Those idle factories have further contributed to a glut of new models. Companies can commission existing factories to build their cars instead of establishing their own plants. Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, sells numerous electric vehicles, but it does not produce the cars itself.这些闲置工厂进一步加剧了新车型的泛滥。企业可以委托现有工厂代工生产，而不必自建厂房。中国电信巨头华为销售多款电动汽车，但自身并不造车。But even under strain, Chinese carmakers pose a threat to American automakers, which are doubling down on gas-powered trucks and sport utility vehicles rather than continuing to spend on electric vehicles. Ford and Stellantis each recorded multibillion-dollar losses after scaling back their electric vehicle plans this year. And even Tesla ceded its early advantage in electric vehicles to BYD last year.即便身处压力之下，中国车企仍对美国车企构成威胁。美国车企正加大对燃油皮卡和SUV的投入，而非继续在电动汽车上投入资金。福特、斯特兰蒂斯今年缩减电动车计划后均录得数十亿美元亏损。就连特斯拉去年也失去了在电动车领域的先发优势，被比亚迪超越。So far, 100 percent tariffs have kept Chinese electric vehicles out of the United States.迄今为止，100%的关税将中国电动汽车挡在了美国市场之外。But Mr. Le said it was only a matter of time. The rest of the world has already started the shift to electric, but “the U.S. just hasn’t gotten that memo yet.”但涂乐表示，这只是时间问题。世界其他地区已经开始向电动化转型，而“美国对此仍然充耳不闻”。Joy Dong对本文有研究贡献。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。