BTC 4 year cycle. Buy bitcoin October 2026 and sell October 2029BitcoinCRYPTO:BTCUSDmalmsteen23The Four-Year Market Cycle (Bitcoin-Centered) The four-year cycle is a recurring market pattern primarily associated with Bitcoin, driven by its halving mechanism. Approximately every four years, the block reward paid to miners is cut in half, reducing the rate of new supply entering the market. This supply shock has historically acted as a catalyst for a broader market cycle. The cycle is typically described in four phases: 1. Accumulation (Post-Bear Market) This phase occurs after a major market crash. Prices are low, sentiment is negative, and interest from the general public is minimal. Long-term investors accumulate positions quietly while volatility decreases. 2. Expansion / Early Bull Market As supply tightens and demand slowly returns, prices begin to rise steadily. Fundamentals improve, institutional interest increases, and confidence starts to rebuild. This phase often lasts many months and rewards patience rather than speculation. 3. Peak / Euphoria This is the most visible phase. Prices accelerate rapidly, media coverage explodes, retail participation peaks, and valuations become detached from fundamentals. Risk-taking is extreme, leverage increases, and narratives replace discipline. Historically, this phase is short-lived. 4. Distribution and Bear Market After the peak, liquidity dries up, prices fall sharply, and confidence collapses. Weak projects fail, leverage unwinds, and capital exits the market. This phase resets the system and sets the stage for the next accumulation period. Why the Cycle Matters The four-year cycle is not guaranteed, but it has repeated across multiple market periods. Its usefulness lies not in predicting exact tops or bottoms, but in aligning expectations with probability. Investors who understand the cycle tend to: Accumulate during periods of pessimism Avoid excessive risk during euphoria Focus on long-term positioning rather than short-term price movements Over time, disciplined behavior around the cycle has historically outperformed emotional decision-making.