Here’s how much things have changed since Donald Trump last addressed Congress: A year ago, he shouted out a beaming Elon Musk, who was watching in the gallery.At the time, Trump was triumphant. But tomorrow night, when he returns to the Capitol to deliver the State of the Union address, he will be trying to turn around a stumbling presidency. His prized tariffs have been sharply curtailed by the Supreme Court. His most visible immigration push—federal surges into U.S. cities to carry out mass deportations—has become broadly unpopular since two Americans were killed by his masked agents. War with Iran seems to be approaching, yet Trump has not tried to sell the public on the conflict, articulated his goals, or laid out what would come next. He is facing an onslaught of questions about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, the dead and disgraced sex offender, as well as his efforts to use the Oval Office to enrich himself and his family. And his poll numbers have slumped just months before Americans are set to render their midterm verdict on his performance.In early 2026’s whirlwind news cycles, and the nation’s splintered media landscape, it’s unlikely that any one speech will permanently alter a presidency. But the address presents Trump with a clear opening—and a national audience. Ever the showman, Trump will have the spotlight as he seeks to sell his victories and convince a skeptical public that he is indeed focused on improving their lives. His aides believe that the address, with its pageantry and tradition, will reignite the presidency’s momentum. But Republicans are worried.Never before has a president so completely dominated the political landscape and national discourse. Trump, of course, wouldn’t have it any other way. But that’s less of a positive for Republicans who are left to defend a series of unpopular decisions. Voters have made their unhappiness clear: Since last fall, the GOP has lost a series of elections, including recent stunners in deep-red Texas and Louisiana districts that Trump won by double digits in November 2024. The GOP worries that a blue wave could be approaching this fall, allowing Democrats to win the House and—although it seemed unthinkable just a few months ago—put the Senate in play.Few congressional Republicans remain willing to publicly defy the president, but more and more are sending private notes down Pennsylvania Avenue expressing concern about Trump’s overreach and obsessions, be it weaponizing the Justice Department for his retribution campaign or bulldozing his way through a slew of Washington-area vanity projects. They are pleading with the president to not lose sight of what got him reelected and to get back to the basics.[Read: The art of the retreat]But there’s a problem with the idea that Trump can simply rerun his 2024 campaign and expect the same result: Over the past two years, many of his most popular issues have turned into political liabilities.Trump has, on more than one occasion, declared that tariff is his favorite word—an odd but instructive choice. Trump is a politician with few core ideologies, but one consistent belief over the decades has been the power of taxing imports. He made tariffs a central pillar of his economic policy, unveiling them last spring on his so-called Liberation Day, and using them to forcefully negotiate trade deals. He declared a national emergency to allow him to bypass Congress, normally the overseer of such matters, and directed the measures himself from the Oval Office.The markets were not always happy, leading Trump to roll back and adjust some of the duties. That, in turn, created an atmosphere of uncertainty, frustrating businesses and foreign leaders alike. But Trump has largely stayed the course and, at times, wielded the tariffs like a geopolitical weapon, drawn to punish countries that have angered him and holstered when favorable agreements are obtained. That unilateral approach helped persuade the Supreme Court to reject most of his tariffs on Friday; the majority of justices made clear that the president has exceeded his constitutional authority.The decision was a major blow to Trump, who has invested so much political capital in his tariffs and has rarely seen his power checked during his second term. He did not handle it well. Later that day, he eviscerated the justices in a remarkably angry news conference. This morning, in a particular fit of pique, he declared on social media that he would no longer use capital letters to refer to, as he put it, “the supreme court.” But some Republicans privately celebrated the tariffs’ demise, believing that they were dragging down their party and that the Court had handed the president a lifeline. Others had worried that Congress was giving up too much of its authority; Representative Mike Turner of Ohio told me, “You don’t want that type of power to be vested in one person because of the creep of the use of tariffs” for use in foreign policy or personal score-settling. Trump, however, is not ready to quit: He has declared that he holds powers to impose tariffs (10 percent! 15 percent!) or licenses to raise revenue. His latest moves threaten to compound the confusion, boost inflation, and hinder the economy.Immigration is another former Trump strength turned problem. Many voters liked his plan to fortify the southern border and deport violent criminals who were in the United States illegally. But, pushed to meet extraordinary daily arrest quotas, the administration’s efforts expanded to target migrants who, in many cases, had lived in the country for years without committing crimes. Images of masked agents shooting dead two Americans—Renee Good and Alex Pretti, both 37 years old—spawned a backlash and forced the administration to retreat from Minneapolis, though its overall deportation goals have not changed. Balking at supercharged funding for ICE, Democrats triggered a partial government shutdown that will continue as lawmakers fill the chamber tomorrow night. The sense of mayhem that fueled those fatal confrontations has fed into the perception, some Republicans fear, of a lawless presidency, one consumed by the Epstein scandal and favoring the rich over the working-class voters who put Trump into office twice.[Read: What would war with Iran look like? ]To that mix now comes the possibility of a new war in the Middle East. Trump, back in 2016, railed against the “endless wars” of Iraq and Afghanistan, vowing to not engage in any new military campaigns. But he has become besotted by his nation’s military might, which was on display in the seizure of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela last month and the powerful bunker-buster bombs he ordered to be dropped on Iran’s nuclear program last summer. Tehran has, once more, drawn Trump’s ire, for its crackdown on protests and for allegedly continuing its nuclear enrichment program. Trump has deployed a fleet of warships to the Middle East and has discussed a range of options with his advisers, from continued diplomacy to a limited strike to a much larger attack. But Trump has yet to make a convincing public case for any sort of conflict; he has not engaged Congress or explained to the American people why a strike—which could lead to the very sort of prolonged war he once vowed to avoid—would be in their interest. And that may continue: Aides told me that foreign policy is unlikely to be a central theme to his State of the Union address.When Trump begins speaking in prime time tomorrow night, the nation he leads will need some convincing. In a CNN poll released today, just 32 percent of Americans now say that Trump has had the right priorities, while 68 percent say he hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems. (That is the president’s most negative reading on that question during either of his terms in office). Trump’s overall job approval rating in that poll is 36 percent, while only 26 percent of independents think he is doing a good job.Trump, naturally, dismisses any negative indicators in surveys. “I had polls for the election that showed I was going to get swamped, and I won in a landslide,” Trump said today.White House officials I spoke with painted a bullish picture of the state of the nation and said that the president would spend tomorrow night focused on his record of accomplishment. Among the highlights: a Dow Jones Industrial Average that recently crossed 50,000; the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza and his claims of cooling several global conflicts; the tax cuts from the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act last summer; the closed border; plans to reduce mortgage rates; and a new government website for buying prescription drugs. Even though Trump has thoroughly rewired the nation’s economy with his tax cuts and trade wars, aides said blame for any sluggishness would be aimed squarely at his predecessor, Joe Biden (“Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to be talking about the economy. We inherited a mess,” Trump claimed last week). The White House spokesperson Kush Desai told me that Trump’s “overarching agenda has already cooled inflation and cut prices of many household essentials, with more progress in store for the American people.”At the time of Trump’s most recent address to Congress—which was not technically a State of the Union—he seemed invincible. Armed with the Project 2025 playbook, he was in the midst of a 100-day sprint to expand executive power. Democrats struggled to keep up. Musk was the GOP’s golden boy, overseeing dramatic DOGE cuts to the federal bureaucracy. Trump that night delivered a swaggering and lengthy speech (one hour and 40 minutes!) and boasted about his electoral victory. A short time later, he talked about running for a third term. Few people laughed.[Read: Doomsday-prepping for Trump’s third term]Though his fortunes have faltered, counting Trump out would be foolish. He remains the author of two of the most unlikely victories in American politics. Even so, there will also be a focus on the pair of men seated behind him in the well of the House of Representatives. One will be Vice President Vance, an early GOP front-runner for 2028. He has taken a few tentative steps to inherit the MAGA coalition, and his presence will be an inherent reminder that Trump’s remaining time in office is limited. The other will be House Speaker Mike Johnson, whose hold on that office feels tenuous. If the Democrats this fall take the lower chamber, as many expect, that spot for next year’s State of the Union could very well be filled by newly elected House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.Trump has long groused about how, in his first term, he felt upstaged during the State of the Union addresses by then–House Speaker Nancy Pelosi being positioned behind him. One year, Pelosi went viral for her sarcastic clap for one of Trump’s applause lines; the next, she tore up her copy of the president’s speech. But beyond those two moments, Pelosi’s presence meant that the Democrats were armed with committee chairs and the power of the subpoena. They were able to investigate Trump and his administration. A Speaker Jeffries would surely do the same. Tomorrow’s State of the Union might just be Trump’s best chance to begin the sort of comeback he needs to avoid that fate again.