储百亮2026年2月24日特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平上一次会面是在去年10月于韩国釜山。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesPresident Trump’s summit with President Xi Jinping in China this April is expected to be a grandiose affair, although friction over trade, Taiwan and technology could upset the bonhomie.特朗普总统今年4月在中国与习近平主席举行的峰会预计将是一场盛大的活动，尽管围绕贸易、台湾和科技问题的摩擦可能会破坏友好氛围。Mr. Trump is scheduled to travel to China on March 31 for a three-day trip, a White House official confirmed on Friday. The Chinese government, which tends to hold off from revealing plans for major visits, has not confirmed the dates, but Mr. Trump already appears exuberant about his trip.白宫官员周五证实，特朗普预计于3月31日前往中国，展开为期三天的访问。中国政府通常不会提前公布重大访问安排，目前尚未证实相关日期，但特朗普似乎已对这次行程充满兴奋。“I have a very good relationship with President Xi. I’m going to be going to China in April,” Mr. Trump said last week. “That’s going to be a wild one.”“我和习近平主席关系非常好。我将在4月去中国，”特朗普上周说，“那将是一趟非常精彩的行程。”He said his latest summit with Mr. Xi should “put on the biggest display you’ve ever had in the history of China.” Mr. Trump also noted the ceremonial troops he saw during his last visit to Beijing in 2017, saying, “I never saw so many soldiers all the same height.”他表示，他与习近平的最新一次峰会将“展现中国历史上最盛大的场面”。特朗普还提到他2017年上次访问北京时看到的仪仗队，说：“我从来没见过这么多身高一模一样的士兵。”For China, a grandiose reception for Mr. Trump will convey a message to the world, especially to its Asian neighbors, said Julian Gewirtz, a former senior director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.曾在拜登政府担任国家安全委员会中国与台湾事务高级主任的朱利安·格维茨表示，对中国而言，为特朗普举行盛大的接待仪式将向世界——尤其是向其亚洲邻国——传递一个信号。“Xi is sending a global signal that he has successfully managed the U.S. through a year of resistance” to Mr. Trump’s trade war, said Mr. Gewirtz, who is now a senior research scholar at Columbia University. China would want Mr. Trump’s presence to show “that even the most powerful country in the world has decided that the risks outweigh the benefits of standing up to China,” Mr. Gewirtz said.“习近平正在向全球发出信号，在应对特朗普的贸易战中，他通过一年的抵制成功拿捏了美国，”现任哥伦比亚大学高级研究学者的格维茨说。他表示，中国希望借助特朗普的到访展示，“即便是世界上最强大的国家也已经认定，与中国对抗的风险大于收益。”The White House has not released details about precisely when and where Mr. Trump will hold talks with Mr. Xi.白宫尚未公布特朗普与习近平举行会谈的具体时间和地点等细节。The United States and China have many points of contention that could ruffle, or at worst derail, the summit. And Mr. Trump’s bargaining power over Mr. Xi ahead of their meeting may be partly clipped by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision that declared parts of his tariffs illegal.美国与中国之间存在诸多争议点，这些分歧可能会给峰会蒙上阴影，甚至在最坏情况下导致峰会受挫。而在会晤前，特朗普在与习近平博弈中的谈判筹码可能会因美国最高法院裁定其部分关税非法而受到一定削弱。Last week, the Supreme Court struck down a large part of the tariffs that Mr. Trump has imposed on many countries, including China. The White House has said that it would keep the tariffs going under new legal justifications, and Mr. Trump has already announced a new 15 percent import tax.上周，最高法院推翻了特朗普对包括中国在内的许多国家征收的大部分关税。白宫表示，将以新的法律依据继续维持这些关税，而特朗普已宣布征收新的15%进口税。Even so, the legal setback for Mr. Trump may bolster Mr. Xi’s confidence that he has gained more of the initiative in his country’s rivalry with the United States, said Chinese and American analysts.即便如此，中国和美国的分析人士认为，这一法律挫折可能仍会增强习近平的信心，让他相信自己在与美国的竞争中已获得更多主动权。“I think this will put China in a more advantageous position in the forthcoming trade talks with the U.S., and China can also push the U.S. on other fronts,” said Prof. Wu Xinbo, the director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.“我认为这将使中国在即将到来的中美贸易谈判中处于更有利的位置，而且中国也可以在其他领域向美国施压，”上海复旦大学美国研究中心主任吴心伯教授说。Mr. Trump will go to China focused on securing business and investment agreements, his previous statements suggest. The Trump administration has also pressed Mr. Xi to stop restricting sales of rare earths as a lever against other countries, a step that Beijing used last year to retaliate against U.S. export controls and tariffs.从特朗普此前的表态来看，他此行将着力争取商业和投资协议。特朗普政府还敦促习近平停止限制稀土销售，以此作为对他国施压的杠杆；去年，北京正是以此反制美国的出口管制和关税措施。中国广州的一家服装作坊，摄于去年7月。“China had already turned the tables on the U.S. with its effective use last year of rare earth restrictions to force the U.S. to have reduced tariffs and limit its export controls,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher on the Chinese economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.“中国去年通过有效利用稀土出口限制，已经在与美国的博弈中实现了反转，迫使美国降低关税并收紧其出口管制，”华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心中国经济研究员甘思德(Scott Kennedy)表示。Mr. Xi’s main hope from the summit may be less specific: an extended period of stability in dealings with the United States. Much of China’s economy is in poor shape, despite a record trade surplus. Mr. Xi has also overseen purges and investigations in the Chinese military. Late last year, these brought down Zhang Youxia, the most senior general of the People’s Liberation Army, or P.L.A., who was accused of corruption and disloyalty.习近平对此次峰会的主要期望或许并不那么具体，他希望中美关系能够长期保持稳定。尽管贸易顺差创下纪录，中国经济的整体状况仍然不佳。习近平还主持了对中国军队的清洗和调查。去年年底，中国人民解放军最高将领张又侠因涉嫌腐败和不忠而落马。“At a broad level, I think Xi wants time and stability in relations,” said Evan S. Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University who worked as director for China in the National Security Council under President Obama.“从总体上看，我认为习近平希望在双边关系中获得时间和稳定，”曾在奥巴马总统任内担任国家安全委员会中国事务主任的现乔治城大学教授麦艾文(Evan S. Medeiros)说。Mr. Xi “needs time to make the economy more resilient and put it in a long term pathway to growth,” said Professor Medeiros. “He needs time to sort out the P.L.A. And he thinks time with Trump in office will help him diplomatically.”习近平“需要时间来增强经济韧性，并使其走上长期增长的道路”，麦艾文教授说。“他需要时间来整顿解放军。而且他认为，特朗普执政期间将有助于中国在外交领域取得进展。”Mr. Xi will also probably seek concessions from Mr. Trump on restrictions of Chinese purchases of technology, as well as on Chinese investments into the United States, said Professor Wu, the researcher in Shanghai.复旦大学学者吴心伯表示，习近平也可能寻求特朗普在限制对华技术出口及中国对美投资方面作出让步。Mr. Xi’s greatest goal may be to persuade Mr. Trump to dilute U.S. support — rhetorical, diplomatic and military — for Taiwan, the island-democracy that has for decades rejected Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.习近平最大的目标或许是说服特朗普削弱美国对台湾在言辞、外交和军事上的支持。台湾这个岛屿民主政体几十年来一直拒绝北京的主权主张。China’s leaders hope that, for a start, Mr. Trump will state that the United States opposes Taiwan seeking independence, said Prof. Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University. If Mr. Trump makes such a statement, that could suggest that he sees Taiwan as troublesome. Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, has said the island is already in reality independent, while implicitly ruling out declaring formal independence.复旦大学台湾研究中心主任信强教授说，中国领导人希望，首先特朗普能表态称美国反对台湾寻求独立。如果特朗普作出这样的表态，可能意味着他将台湾视为一个麻烦。台湾总统赖清德表示，台湾实际上已经独立，但同时又含蓄地排除了正式宣布独立的可能。2023年，台湾军队在台湾八里进行演习。Chinese officials probably see little chance of Mr. Trump making a drastic shift in U.S. policy on Taiwan, but hope to work on him over the coming year, when the two leaders will have two or three more opportunities to meet, said Professor Xin.信强说，中国官员大概认为特朗普不太可能在对台政策上作出重大改变，但希望在未来一年里对他施加影响，期间中美领导人还将有两到三次会面机会。If, on the other hand, Mr. Trump approves a new package of arms sales to Taiwan, following U.S. approval of $11 billion in weapons sales in December, that could send relations into another downward spin and even derail the summit, Professor Xin said.信强还表示，特朗普在去年12月批准110亿美元对台军售之后，如果再次批准新的对台军售方案，可能会令两国关系再度恶化，甚至破坏这次峰会。“The arbitrariness and uncertainty of President Trump’s decision-making make it very hard to predict,” Professor Xin said of what may happen over talks about Taiwan. “But I have always believed that he will not make concessions on major strategic areas.”“因为特朗普总统决策的随意性和不确定性是很难预测的，”信强在谈到关于台湾问题的谈判前景时说。“但是我始终相信他不会在一些重大的、战略性的地方作出让步。”Mr. Xi could also retaliate if Mr. Trump moves to replace the tariffs outlawed by the Supreme Court with similar tariffs under new legal justifications.如果特朗普采取行动，用具有新法律依据的类似关税来取代被最高法院否决的关税，习近平也可能采取报复措施。China’s exports to the United States have come under a range of tariffs, and the United States mostly treats these separate duties as stackable, so they can add up on top of each other. The Supreme Court’s decision stripped back some layers of this stack, including a 10 percent general tariff as well as a 10 percent tariff that Mr. Trump put on China for failing to prevent fentanyl and its precursor chemicals from flowing to the United States.中国对美国的出口商品一直被征收多种关税，而美国通常将这些不同的关税视为可叠加的，因此它们可以层层加码。最高法院的裁决取消了部分叠加关税，其中包括10%的一般关税，以及特朗普因中国未能阻止芬太尼及其前体化学品流入美国而对中国加征的10%关税。If Mr. Trump revives the outlawed tariffs under new legal justifications, China could cut orders of farm produce from the United States, said Professor Wu, the scholar in Shanghai.上海的吴心伯教授说，如果特朗普以新的法律依据重新实施被否决的关税，中国可能会减少从美国订购农产品。Meaghan Tobin和Keith Bradsher对本文有报道贡献。储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site