Gold 15M Post-Breakout Distribution & Short SetupGOLD (US$/OZ)TVC:GOLDsuperiorPaellaw6ejdPrice advanced inside a well-defined rising channel, then delivered a strong bullish breakout with momentum expansion. That impulse leg is now followed by tight consolidation near the highs — a common transition phase between continuation and reversal. Current Structure * Price is compressing in a small range after the breakout. * Upside momentum is slowing. * Wicks show rejection near the highs. * No strong continuation candles yet. This behavior often signals *distribution or absorption* rather than immediate continuation. Key Levels Resistance: ~5,190–5,200 (recent highs / stop liquidity zone) Range Support: ~5,170 Major Intraday Support ~5,120 Bearish Target Zone:** ~5,100–5,090 These zones align with liquidity pockets and prior imbalance areas. --- 4️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability if Breakdown Occurs) If price breaks below 5,170 with acceptance and momentum: * Liquidity sweep above highs likely complete * Acceleration toward 5,120 * Extension toward 5,100–5,090 This would represent a classic: Impulse → Distribution → Markdow 5️⃣ Bullish Invalidation Scenario If price: * Breaks and holds above 5,200 * Prints strong continuation candles * Shows high-volume expansion Then structure shifts back to bullish continuation with potential toward 5,220+. 6️⃣ Trade Logic Evaluation * Risk area clearly defined above range highs * Strong R:R if targeting prior imbalance * Best execution comes after confirmed breakdown + retest Entering inside the range increases fakeout risk. Overall Bias Neutral-to-bearish while below 5,200. Confirmed bearish below 5,170. Bullish continuation above 5,200. If you'd like, I can also break this down into: * Scalper view * Intraday swing plan * Liquidity-based smart money perspective * Probability modeling