Nasdaq at a Breaking Point | Tariffs Back, NVDA Earnings AheadMicro E-mini S&P 500 Index FuturesCME_MINI:MES1!natronNasdaq just broke trend… Rejected with a double top… Tariffs are back… NVDA earnings this week… So the real question: Breakout… or fakeout? 🌍 Supreme Court Ruling — Already Priced In? Markets had weeks to digest the Supreme Court decision. The initial reaction suggests this wasn’t a shock. What matters now isn’t the ruling. It’s the response. • Do other countries retaliate? • Do trade agreements get challenged? • Does rhetoric escalate? • Does Trump use alternative measures? Markets move on uncertainty — not headlines. If escalation builds → volatility expands. If it fades → earnings take control. And earnings = NVDA. 🧭 Why I’m Watching More Than Just Nasdaq Nasdaq doesn’t move in isolation. • NVDA drives heavy index weighting • S&P confirms broader participation • Dollar influences liquidity & risk appetite • Gold reflects geopolitical tension If cross-market flows align, the breakout sticks. If they diverge, it’s probably a fakeout. 📊 Nasdaq (NQ) — Decision Zone We broke trend last week. Rejected at resistance. Now back below the trend line and VWAP. Key levels: 🔺 25,125 → Break & hold = upside continuation 🔻 24,700 → Lose & hold = opens downside 🔻 24,300–24,000 → Larger support zone Right now? Range. Break it — or prepare for chop. 🖥 NVDA — The Real Catalyst Trend remains strong. But on the 4H we’re compressing into structure. Key levels: 🔺 195 → Opens 212 ATH retest 🔻 185 → Opens 170–175 🔻 170 → Structural shift If NVDA clears 195, Nasdaq likely clears 25,125. If NVDA loses 185, that 24,700 on NQ gets tested quickly. This week belongs to NVDA. 📉 S&P (ES) Similar compression. 🔺 6,930 → Upside continuation 🔻 6,770 → Downside pressure Still range-bound until proven otherwise. 🥇 Gold — Not Acting Scared Gold reclaimed 5,140 and continues pushing. ATH near 5,600. If geopolitical tension builds, gold likely stays bid. 💵 DXY — The Pressure Valve Rejected 98. 🔻 97.35 → Break supports equities 🔺 Reclaim 98 → Adds pressure Dollar direction will matter more than tariff headlines. 🎯 Final Take If this was already priced in… Markets stabilize. Earnings drive. Range resolves upward. If retaliation headlines build… Gold stays hot. Volatility expands. Equities test range lows. This week doesn’t belong to the ruling. It belongs to NVDA. Break the range. Or prepare for volatility.