FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWThe Nasdaq continues toconsolidate near monthly lows as weakness in software stocks has been putting alid on the index. There’s also been lots of uncertainty on the macro andgeopolitical side that’s been keeping the market on edge. The risks we had were theUS Supreme Court decision on tariffs, the Fed interest rates path and the potentialUS-Iran military escalation. The US Supreme Court ruledagainst Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Friday which triggered a short-term rallyin the Nasdaq. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law andUSTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will behonoured. The new levies reduce the effective average tariff rate, which couldbe a positive at the margin. In terms of Fed interestrates path, the market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end which couldbe at risk of a hawkish repricing on further improvement in the US labourmarket data. In fact, Fed’s Waller yesterday mentioned that he might want tohold rates steady if we see a repeat of the strong January’s NFP report. Therefore,next Friday is going to be key as good data could weigh on the market in theshort-term on a hawkish repricing. Lastly, we have the US-Iranmilitary escalation risk. This is one of the biggest risks because if amilitary conflict were to break out, we would see oil prices skyrocket. Thiswould be a negative shock for the global economy and lead to stagflation risks.The first reaction in the markets would be strong risk aversion. We wouldhighly likely see a huge selloff in the stock market as future growthexpectations would turn negative.To sum up, there are lotsof downside risks at the moment with little reasons for a rally into new all-timehighs. The macro backdrop is still positive given the easing inflation and improvinglabour market, but that could change quickly, so traders will need to becareful.NASDAQ TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOnthe daily chart, we can see theNasdaq has been trading in a wide rangesince October of last year. Such long consolidations generally lead to bigtrending moves once the price breaks out. Until then, the market participantswill continue to play the range. NASDAQ TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOnthe 4 hour chart, we can see theprice broke above the downward trendline recently which could be a signal of moreupside to come. For now, the price got stuck in a tight range between the24,700 support and the 25,130 resistance. A break below the support will likelytake us back to February lows, while an upside breakout should lead to a rallyto the 25,400 level next.NASDAQ TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much we can add here as the buyers will keep on stepping in around thesupport and increase the bullish bets on a break above the resistance, whilethe sellers will continue to pile in around the resistance and increase thebearish bets on a break below the support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest USJobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI report.Also, watch out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.