ETH/USD Market Analysis: Macro + Structure [MaB]Ethereum / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:ETHUSDMBARRECA1. The Macro Context (The "Why") 🌍 Hi traders! Before looking at the candles, let's look at the money. My fundamental scoring table is giving us a clear signal: we have a +3 differential, pointing toward a Bullish bias for the USD that we simply can't ignore. While this strength in the Dollar typically creates headwinds for Risk assets like Ethereum, the structural breakdown on the chart suggests the technical trend is currently the dominant driver. 🏦 Key Factor Analysis: 🏦 Current Rates: Explanation: Fed at 3.75%, among the highest in the G7, offering an attractive carry. Score USD: +1 🌍 Economic Regime: Explanation: Goldilocks scenario with an expanding economy and controlled inflation. Score USD: +1 📊 Rate Expectations: Explanation: Dovish tilt with a post-cut pause, trending toward accommodation. Score USD: -1 ⚖️ Risk Sentiment: Explanation: Classic safe haven status, benefiting from any risk-off regimes. Score USD: +1 🏛️ COT Score: Explanation: Longs are being built with positive momentum on neutral positioning. Score USD: +1 Currency Score Summary: Total Score USD: +3 (Bullish) Synthesis: 💡 USD (Strong, Score +3): Solid growth (GDP 2.1%) and high relative rates keep the greenback supported despite a recent slight GDP miss. Conclusion: Given this fundamental backdrop and the current technical breakdown, we are strictly looking for Short setups on ETH/USD as it reacts to USD strength and structural resistance. Going against this bias would be statistical suicide. 🚫 2. The Technical Setup (The "Where") 📉 Timeframe: 15m | Pair: ETH/USD The SMC Market Structure + Price Zones indicator has confirmed our statistical edge. Here’s the probabilistic data from the dashboard: 🚀 Continuation Rate (73%): We are currently above the 60% threshold. This confirms a healthy directional trend where continuation has a much higher probability than a reversal. 🔥 Streak Analysis (2): We are currently on impulse number 2. Expected Streak: 4 (Percentile: 80%) Remaining Moves: 2. This indicates a trend. The statistical range suggests a typical duration of 1-4 impulses. 🔄 Retest & Reaction: Retest Prob (73.1%): The probability of the price returning to test the zone after a BOS. BOS/Ret Rate (64.9%): Once inside the zone, this is the probability of a positive reaction leading to a new BOS. 🎯 Extension & Projection: Extension Range: The expected extension for this single leg is between 1.59x and 3.4x (Expected: 1.84x). Compound Extension (N/A): We are focusing on the immediate structural extension targets for this leg. 3. Execution Plan on Chart 🎯 Moving over to the charts, we are using these statistics to define our operational levels: 📍 Entry and Stop Loss: We are placing a limit entry within the Supply Zone 15m (Red Band). The stop loss is tucked a few pips outside the zone at 1870.6 to protect against structural invalidation. 🏁 Statistical Take Profit: Instead of an arbitrary target, we are leveraging the Extension Rate. We project the target at 1.84x relative to the pullback zone height, aligning with the 1772.4 level. This allows us to capture the full extension projected by the algorithm. 🏆 Trade Parameters: 💰 Entry Price: 1846.4 🛡️ Stop Loss: 1870.6 🏆 Take Profit: 1772.4 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on a proprietary algorithm and is shared exclusively for educational and didactic purposes. It does not constitute financial advice or investment solicitation in any way. Trading involves significant risk.