FeaturePublished: 24 February 2026Lisa Palmer1 Nature Climate Change (2026)Cite this articleSubjectsClimate-change impactsClimate-change mitigationClimate-change policyAs global temperatures move beyond 1.5 °C, overshoot now defines the landscape ahead, sharpening legal claims, exposing economic risks and revealing how far politics still trail the pace of change.This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institutionAccess optionsAccess Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journalsGet Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription27,99 € / 30 dayscancel any timeLearn moreSubscribe to this journalReceive 12 print issues and online access269,00 € per yearonly 22,42 € per issueLearn moreBuy this articlePurchase on SpringerLinkInstant access to the full article PDF.39,95 €Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkoutFig. 1: National temperature contributions for Ireland under alternative greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios evaluated under shared socioeconomic pathway SSP1–2.6 global emissions assumptions.ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Nature 634, 366–373 (2024).Article CAS Google Scholar Schleussner, C.-F. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 15, 1136–1140 (2025).Article Google Scholar Lenton, T. M. et al. (eds) Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (Univ. of Exeter, 2025).Duffy, C. et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 094019 (2025).Article Google Scholar Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty (United Nations Environment Programme, 2025).Meyer, A. L. S. & Trisos, C. H. One Earth 6, 1614–1617 (2023).Article Google Scholar Arko, T. Carbon markets and the new scramble for African land. ROAPE https://go.nature.com/3ZAzQYS (30 October 2024).Download referencesAuthor informationAuthors and AffiliationsIndependent science journalist-in-residence, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, AustriaLisa PalmerAuthorsLisa PalmerView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarCorresponding authorCorrespondence to Lisa Palmer.Ethics declarationsCompeting interestsThe author declares no competing interests.Rights and permissionsReprints and permissionsAbout this article