ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Mon (Feb 23)E-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!MyAlgoIndexWild end to the week — Supreme Court struck down Trump's IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, stocks initially rallied hard, but then GDP printed a miserable 1.4% vs 2.5% expected and PCE inflation came in hot at 2.9% vs 2.8% forecast. The cherry on top? Trump signed a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act Friday evening, then raised it to 15% on Saturday via Truth Social, effective 12:01 AM Monday. So we head into the Sunday open with a complicated mix of legal relief and fresh tariff escalation. Friday's session was a rollercoaster — ES opened near 6,874, dipped to 6,847 in the morning on that ugly GDP/PCE combo, then ripped higher as the SCOTUS ruling sank in and buyers stepped up into the close at 6,923. The weekly candle that was shaping up as a doji/rejection flipped into a hammer (O 6852, H 6931, L 6791, C 6923), which under normal circumstances would be constructive. But with the 15% tariff bombshell dropping over the weekend, Sunday's globex open could gap either way. News & Sentiment Analysis: The macro picture has shifted significantly. The SCOTUS ruling was genuinely bullish — invalidating $133.5B in IEEPA tariff revenue and removing a major inflationary overhang. More than 330 stocks in the S&P 500 advanced on the ruling. Treasury Secretary Bessent went on Fox News and struck an optimistic tone, saying he believes the economy can grow 3.5% this year and that inflation is "still too high but moving toward the Fed's target." He also noted that tariff revenue under the existing framework would remain largely intact through congressionally approved trade authorities. However, Trump's response has muddied the waters considerably. Within hours of the ruling, he signed an executive order imposing 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act — a provision that has never been used by any president before. By Saturday morning, he escalated that to 15% via Truth Social, effective at the start of Monday's session. Legal experts are already questioning the move, noting that Section 122 only authorizes tariffs when there's a "fundamental international payments problem," which the US arguably does not have. These tariffs are capped at 150 days under the law, after which Congress would need to act. The GDP print was genuinely concerning — Q4 growth at just 1.4% vs the 2.5% consensus creates a stagflationary backdrop when combined with the hotter PCE data. Core PCE at 2.9% YoY vs 2.8% expected means the Fed is stuck between slowing growth and sticky inflation. Rate cut probabilities have cratered: March now just 5% (from 10%), April at 18% (from 30%), and even June dropped to 57% (from 85%). The yield curve saw net higher yields across the board with 2Y at 3.484%, 10Y at 4.094%, and 30Y at 4.736%. On the positioning front, CFTC COT data shows USD non-commercial positioning still elevated, while EUR positioning is near the lower end of its recent range. The S&P 500's forward PE at 22.2 remains well above the 10-year average of 18.8, suggesting limited valuation cushion if the tariff situation escalates further. US Trade Representative Greer announced Section 301 investigations on "most major trading partners" on an accelerated timeline, adding another layer of uncertainty. The administration continues to use sector-specific duties on steel, aluminum, copper, lumber, cars and parts through Section 232. For Monday specifically, Fed's Waller speaks at 08:00 ET — his comments on the tariff/inflation dynamic will be closely watched. US Factory Orders at 10:00 ET (exp 1.0% vs prior 2.7%). German IFO data hit early at 04:00 ET. ECB President Lagarde speaks at 12:30 ET. China is on holiday but PBoC rate decisions come at 20:00 ET (no change expected). Forecast: • Overnight: Likely gap down on 15% tariff news, testing 6,870-6,890 area. Could see 30-50pt drop from Friday's close depending on globex reaction • Morning Session: Volatile open as market digests tariff implications. Watch for a potential morning low followed by dip-buying attempt, especially if Waller's 08:00 comments lean dovish • Afternoon: Consolidation expected. Market likely waiting for more clarity on Section 122 legal challenges and Tuesday's HD earnings / Consumer Confidence data • Daily Close: Slightly lower, 6,880-6,910 range. Tariff uncertainty caps upside but SCOTUS precedent limits panic • Expected Range: 6,845 to 6,950 (based on 14-Day ATR of 93 pts) • Most Likely Path: Gap down toward 6,880-6,890, morning volatility with potential bounce attempt toward 6,920-6,930 (prior close area), then settling in the 6,880-6,910 zone by close. The key question is whether buyers who showed up Friday still have conviction with 15% tariffs on the table Monday Events: • 04:00: German IFO Business Climate (Exp: 88.2, Prior: 87.6) • 06:00: BoE's Taylor Speaks • 08:00: Fed's Waller Speaks — key for rate outlook post-PCE • 10:00: US Factory Orders MoM (Exp: 1.0%, Prior: 2.7%) • 12:30: ECB's Pres. Lagarde Speaks • 15:40: RBA's Plumb Speaks • 20:00: PBoC Interest Rate decisions (no change expected) • Pre-Tuesday: HD earnings before market Tue (EPS: $2.56, Rev: $38.26B) • Tuesday 10:00: CB Consumer Confidence + New Home Sales • Wednesday after-hours: NVDA earnings (EPS: $1.53, Rev: $65.8B) Resistance: • 6950-6955 — Computed Pivot R1 / 1 SD Resistance. First major rejection zone if any bounce attempt materializes. Also near the 20-DMA (6,934) and 50-DMA (6,933) cluster • 6930-6935 — 20/50 DMA convergence zone. Friday's high was 6,931 so this becomes immediate overhead. Price needs to reclaim and hold above this to flip short-term structure • 6920-6925 — Friday's close area / prior session equilibrium. Will act as a magnet if we gap down and attempt to fill • 6905-6912 — 9-DMA area / prior Planner R4 zone. Intermediate resistance on any bounce attempt from lower levels • 6985-6990 — Computed Pivot R2 area. Only comes into play on a massive squeeze scenario, unlikely Monday Support: • 6894-6900 — Computed Pivot Point / 1 SD Support (6,894) / 100-DMA (6,885). This is THE decision zone. If tariff gap down holds here, bulls still have a case • 6870-6879 — Prior session pivot / VWAP area / Friday's open zone. Break below Pivot Point targets this level • 6845-6852 — Computed Pivot S1 (6,870) / Friday's low area (6,847). Major support — a close below here would be very bearish • 6815-6826 — Computed Pivot S2 (6,816) / 1.618 Fib extension (6,826). Breakdown target if tariff panic intensifies • 6785-6791 — Computed Pivot S3 (6,786) / Last week's low (6,791). Extreme downside target, only in play if Section 122 tariffs trigger broad risk-off How I'm seeing it: • Leaning bearish below 6,930 heading into Sunday's open. The 15% tariff escalation is a meaningful negative catalyst that the market has not priced in yet. Friday's rally was driven by SCOTUS relief — that narrative just got complicated • If we gap down to the 6,880-6,900 zone and hold, this could set up a "buy the dip" scenario. The SCOTUS ruling IS structurally bullish, and Section 122 tariffs face immediate legal challenges. Dip buyers may view this as temporary noise • If we break below 6,870, the next target is 6,845 (Friday's low). A close below that level would confirm the weekly hammer was a fake-out and we're headed back toward the 6,791 weekly low • Watch Fed Waller at 08:00 very closely. A dovish lean given the weak GDP and stagflation concerns could provide a floor. A hawkish stance focused on the hot PCE would add pressure • Multi-indicator composite shifted to 8% Sell from 24% — the bearish signal is weakening but the direction is still negative. Oscillators bounced (daily at 61, 4H at 66) but these readings came before the 15% tariff news • HD earnings Tuesday pre-market will set the tone for consumer spending reads. NVDA Wednesday after-hours is the week's main event for tech/AI sentiment • Primary Setup: Short from 6,920-6,935 (Friday close / 20-50 DMA area), stop 6,960 (above Pivot R1), targeting 6,870 (Pivot Point area) then 6,845 (Friday low / Pivot S1). Rationale: Tariff gap-fill trade — if we bounce toward the DMA cluster, sellers likely step in with the 15% tariff overhang The big picture question this week is whether the SCOTUS ruling (bullish legal precedent) or Trump's tariff escalation (bearish policy response) wins the tug-of-war. Add in stagflationary data, cratering rate cut expectations, and mega-cap earnings (HD/NVDA), and this is going to be a high-volatility week. Size accordingly. Good Luck !!!