COT Report: Uncovering the "New Crop" SignalSoybean Meal FuturesCBOT_DL:ZM1!TradeVizionHow to Refine COT Analysis Using Term-Structure Alignment ("New Crop" Signal) Most traders who use the Commitments of Traders (COT) report focus only on the aggregated Commercial net position from the Legacy combined report. While this provides a broad view of positioning, it blends all contract months together and hides how risk is distributed across the forward curve. In this tutorial, we explore a more granular approach: comparing the standard Legacy Futures – Total Positions data with the Legacy Futures – Other Positions (New Crop) data to identify positioning alignment across delivery cycles. What You Will Learn: Why aggregated COT positioning can mask curve-specific behavior. How deferred (New Crop) positioning differs structurally from total positioning. How alignment across both segments can highlight positioning saturation. 1. The Limitation of Combined COT Data The standard Legacy COT report aggregates all contract months into a single total. In agricultural markets, this means old-crop and new-crop contracts are blended together. Because Commercials hedge across the entire forward curve, the combined net position may smooth out important shifts occurring specifically in deferred delivery months. As a result, the aggregate index can: React slower, Show broader basing patterns, Mask concentrated positioning in specific crop years. 2. The Structural Role of New Crop Contracts In agricultural markets such as Soybean Meal or Lean Hogs, new-crop contracts represent a distinct production cycle. Positioning in these contracts reflects: Forward production exposure, Deferred inventory hedging, Risk transfer tied to the next supply cycle. Because new-crop open interest is typically smaller than the full aggregated market, positioning shifts in this segment can appear sharper and reach statistical extremes faster than the combined report. This does not necessarily imply directional forecasting - rather, it reflects curve-specific risk concentration. 3. The Alignment Framework Instead of using New Crop data as a standalone signal, the focus is on confluence. Setup: Monitor the Legacy Commercial Index (e.g., 13- or 26-week normalization). Simultaneously monitor the Legacy "Other Positions" (New Crop) Commercial Index. Identify moments when both indices reach historical extremes simultaneously. When both the aggregate positioning and the deferred-cycle positioning reach extremes together, this indicates broad positioning saturation across the forward curve. Why This Can Matter: When risk transfer is concentrated across both front and deferred months: The commercial side may already be heavily hedged. Marginal hedging pressure can diminish. The market may become vulnerable to reversal if positioning becomes crowded. In practice, the New Crop index often reaches extremes earlier because it represents a smaller and more cycle-specific segment. This can make it appear to "lead" the aggregate index, though this effect is structural rather than predictive by itself. Example Application: Soybean Meal On the weekly Soybean Meal chart, observe: The New Crop Commercial Index frequently reaches extreme readings before or at major price inflection points. The aggregated Legacy index may confirm shortly after. Major turning points often coincide with alignment between both indices. Filtering setups to require alignment between total and deferred positioning may help isolate higher-quality positioning extremes compared to using the combined report alone. Disclaimer: This framework analyzes positioning structure, not forecasting intent. COT data should be integrated with broader market context, including seasonality, term structure, and price structure analysis.