3 min readFeb 23, 2026 08:05 AM IST First published on: Feb 23, 2026 at 08:05 AM ISTThe year 2025 was marked by acute geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and so far, 2026 does not seem very different. The US Supreme Court has ruled that President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was unlawful. While the court’s pushback against executive overreach sends reassuring signals, it has also injected greater uncertainty in global trade frameworks, the ripple effects of which will be felt in the months to come. Within hours, Trump announced his decision to impose a 10 per cent global tariff on most goods; a day later, he raised it to 15 per cent. This is hardly a stable environment for countries and firms to strategise and draw up plans. Indian exports to the US have, over the course of the past year, gone from receiving MFN (most favoured nation) rates to being hit with a reciprocal tariff of 26 per cent, being slapped with an additional penalty of 25 per cent for importing Russian oil and then a lower rate of 18 per cent after Delhi and Washington agreed to the broad contours of a trade deal. But even that, as is now known, was not the end of the matter.The 15 per cent levy is in place for 150 days. There is little clarity on what will happen after this period ends. Trump’s approach does not give any indication on whether his stance on trade policy is likely to change. The confusion extends not just to India, but even countries such as the UK, Japan, and EU which have signed trade agreements with the US. A return to the era of stable and low tariffs is unlikely. Then there is also the contentious issue of refunds of the tariffs already collected. While, so far, the court has not provided any clear directions on the matter, as per estimates, the tariffs collected are in far excess of $100 billion.AdvertisementOver the past year, India has managed to deftly navigate an increasingly unpredictable and fragmented world order, with its decisions guided by a changing cost-benefit analysis. It has successfully concluded trade talks with the EU, and has also managed to arrive at an agreement with Washington. While the Indian government has said that it is “studying” the implications of recent developments, the US court’s ruling may well have provided it with greater room to negotiate with the Trump administration as it moves ahead with finalising the trade deal.