BTC/USD — Range Compression Between 70,000 and 65,600 Amid MacroBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDJohn_IsigeBTC/USD remains locked inside a 70,000–65,600 consolidation range, stabilizing after early-year weakness driven by shifting Federal Reserve expectations and escalating macro uncertainty. The latest FOMC minutes highlighted growing concern that inflation progress toward the 2.0% target may stall. Officials did not rule out returning to a more hawkish tone if inflation remains elevated. Recent data complicated the picture: •Core PCE: 3.0% YoY (above 2.9% forecast) •Headline PCE: 2.9% YoY •Q4 GDP: 1.4% (vs 2.8% expected) This mix of cooling growth and persistent inflation increases policy uncertainty — a negative backdrop for risk assets. Geopolitical and trade tensions add pressure. Legal disputes over tariffs and renewed trade measures have reduced risk appetite. Institutional flows confirm this shift: •Crypto ETF outflows: $315.9M last week •Five consecutive weeks of withdrawals •Fear & Greed Index: 5 (extreme fear) ⸻ Technical Structure •Range: 70,000 – 65,600 •Bollinger Bands: Sloping downward •MACD: Firmly negative •Stochastic: Bearish bias Momentum remains weak while below 75,000. ⸻ Key Levels 🔹 Support •62,500 •56,250 •50,000 🔹 Resistance •75,000 •81,250 •93,750 ⸻ Trading Plan 🔻 Primary Scenario — Breakdown Extension •Sell below: 62,500 •Targets: 56,250 → 50,000 •Stop-loss: 64,580 •Time horizon: 5–7 days A break of 62,500 would confirm range failure and open space toward major Murrey/Fibonacci support. 🔺 Alternative Scenario — Upside Breakout •Buy above: 75,000 •Targets: 81,250 → 93,750 •Stop-loss: 71,500 A sustained breakout above the upper Bollinger Band would signal trend recovery. ⸻ Outlook Bitcoin remains in compression mode under heavy macro pressure. Until 75,000 is reclaimed or 62,500 breaks decisively, range trading dominates. Bias: Bearish below 75,000 Volatility trigger: Break of range extremes