EURUSD jumps above 1.18 as latest tariff woes weigh on the US Dollar. What's next?

Wait 5 sec.

FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakenedacross the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’sreciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed onthe greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposednew tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariffdeals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new leviesactually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so it could be a positive. The dollar might stay onthe backfoot for now amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picturehas changed much. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalationwhich could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricingon stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD.EUR:On the EUR side, nothinghas changed. As a reminder, the ECB held interest rates steady as widelyexpected at the last meeting and kept the same data-dependent andmeeting-by-meeting guidance. The policymakers have eased the rhetoric on theeuro recently after the currency dropped below the 1.20 level against thedollar. The focus remains oninflation as the central bank has repeatedly stated that it won’t respond tosmall or short-term deviations from the 2% target. The data for now has beenpositive with economic activity picking up and core inflation hovering just abit above target.EURUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that EURUSD fell into a new monthly lowlast week but eventually bounced back following the US Supreme Court decision.There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to seesome more details.EURUSD TECHNICALANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearishmomentum. The price is now retesting the broken trendline where we have also asupport zone around the 1.1805 level. This is where we can expect the buyers tostep in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the1.1927 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower topile in for a drop into the 1.17 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyerswill look for a bounce around the support, while the sellers will look for abreak lower. The red line define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest USJobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the German CPI andthe US PPI data. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.