Markets Aren't Random- The Story is Just BuriedE-mini S&P 500 FuturesCME_MINI:ES1!Tactical_Alpha_StrategiesHere is a recent Substack I posted. Feel free to follow me on Substack for weekly updates. The Macro There is always a story behind the markets. To the everyday investor, many of the market movements seem random. There are even behavioral finance theories that have studied this and concluded that the markets are efficient and random. Read about efficient market hypotheses and random walk theory if you need to fall asleep. If you are willing to dig, you can usually find the story. That’s where I am at this morning. The daily charts are not showing anything new—same-old chop, with buyers and sellers pretty much in agreement. Price doesn’t get too far in one direction before the other steps in. The daily chart isn’t much help in finding the market’s narrative at this point. To find the story, I moved to the weekly charts, where each black or white box represents one week of trading. This is where the story is. The story is messy because the market is coiling every week for a large move. A widely followed metric suggests that, and it has been right the past 3 times. Low-volatility periods are followed by large price movements, as evidenced on the chart. The price movements can go either way. I think the next 3 months are setting up for a large price swing. One side must give up, and they will. We don’t know which side yet. I think the muted price action leading to this coiling is the market wrestling with this amazing, and frankly generational, investing thesis about AI. It has the potential to create many winners in the financial markets. Without AI, I imagine we would have already seen a large pullback, but AI is likely preventing that because these small pullbacks are giving investors a chance to buy into the AI boom. In closing, the markets need a catalyst to break in one direction, and it will find it. We don’t know what it will be until it unfolds. I think it will be one of three things: NVDA or AVGO earnings, recent tariff and trade issues, or the black swan.