BTC Capped by Risk-Off, Tactical Shorts into 68.7k–71kBitcoin / TetherUS PERPETUAL CONTRACTBINANCE:BTCUSDT.POx_kaliMarket Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is coiling in a tight range after a sharp early‑February drawdown, with rallies repeatedly fading into the high‑$68k area while demand defends the mid‑$66k band. Momentum is soft, volumes are mostly routine, and macro tech risk keeps a lid on impulsive upside. Momentum: Bearish tilt within a $65k–$71k range, with repeated failure near 68,650–68,750 and buyers responding first at 66,200–66,400. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 68,650–68,750 (4H), 70,900–71,000 (12H/1D). - Supports (HTF): 66,200–66,400 (4H), 65,600–65,700 (12H), 65,100 (1D). Volumes: Predominantly normal across TFs, only a modest 6H uptick that failed to break the range. Multi-timeframe signals: Higher TFs lean bearish on 1D/4H/2H/1H, while 12H/6H attempt counter‑trend bounces. This aligns with the sell‑rips stance into 68,7k–71k and respect for the 66,3k–65,1k support ladder. Harvest zones: (not provided) — no multi‑TF ISPD floor cluster near spot today, so dip‑buying for inverse pyramiding is deferred until new floors align. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Strong sell regime that confirms the bearish momentum bias and argues for patience on longs until the regime improves. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant structure is a pressured range, so we adopt a defensive sell‑the‑rip stance below 70,983 and keep longs tactical at supports only on strong reversal cues. Global bias: Bearish below 70,983, invalidation on a daily close above 70,983 with improving spot flows and CVD. Opportunities: - Tactical short on rejection at 67,950–68,100, target 67,200 then 66,300. - Add or initiate short on failure at 68,650–68,750, reduce above 68,950. - Tactical buy only on a decisive reversal wick at 66,300–65,600, target 67,900 then 68,600. Risk zones / invalidations: A daily close above 70,983 would invalidate the sell‑rips bias and open 71,000+, while a firm break below 65,100 would risk an accelerated slide. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Nvidia earnings and broader AI equity reaction could sway cross‑asset risk tone and BTC appetite. - Geopolitical tension around U.S.–Iran headlines raises weekend headline risk and liquidity shocks. - US spot ETF trend remains net outflow on a 7‑day basis, improvement would be the first green light for sustaining above $70k. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): (not provided) (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): (not provided) (−4%/−6% below Palier 1) → reinforcement - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Across timeframes the market is range‑bound with a bearish lean, with mid‑TF bounce attempts failing to shift the higher‑TF structure. 1D/4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Bearish tone with lower highs under 68,650–68,750 and distribution near highs, supports stack at 66,300 → 65,600 → 65,100 where reactive bounces occur. 12H/6H: Counter‑trend bounce risk persists, but without volume acceptance above 68,700 these attempts tend to be sold, so confirmation above 68,700 is required for continuation. Confluence: The 4H pivot at 68,698 is the clean decision point, while 70,983 is the higher‑timeframe line‑in‑the‑sand. Normal volumes imply grindy tapes until a catalyst hits. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro tech risk is in a net risk‑off regime that caps upside follow‑through, while on‑chain shows demand around $60k–$69k cushioning dips yet not fueling a durable advance. Macro events: Geopolitical risk around U.S.–Iran headlines can trim liquidity and spark whipsaws. Equity leadership sensitivity to Nvidia adds a cross‑asset lever on risk appetite. Credit stress is rising, which often dampens speculative flows. External Macro Analysis: The Macro-Tech dashboard shows the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in BEAR, with ARKK and HYG confirming risk‑off and SOXX and IWM in conflict, a late‑cycle read that supports a defensive technical bias until the regime flips. Bitcoin analysis: Price sits in the $60k–$70k cost‑basis band where prior accumulation absorbs supply, however ETF 7‑day outflows and a negative Coinbase premium underscore weak US spot demand into the high‑$60ks. On-chain data: Mixed to slightly distribution‑biased, with short‑term holders stressed and long‑term holders steady, which supports mean‑reversion bounces but argues rallies into resistance are likely sold without a flow reversal. Expected impact: Macro risk‑off plus soft spot demand argues for capped rallies into 68,7k–71k, and only a regime improvement with better ETF flows would unlock acceptance above $70k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Range‑bound with a bearish tilt and a clear sell‑the‑rip bias into 68,7k–71k while 66,3k–65,1k supports catch first responses. The broader trend is bearish inside the range. The most relevant setup is a tactical short on 67,950–68,100 or 68,650–68,750 rejection, with profits managed into 66,3k and 65,1k. Macro tech risk is risk‑off and ETF flows remain net negative, both capping rebounds. Stay patient, trade the edges, and wait for either a confirmed 70,983 reclaim or a clean 65,100 break to signal the next leg.