US 100 Index – Preparing for the Impact of AI Bellwether Nvidia’US Tech 100 IndexPEPPERSTONE:NAS100PepperstoneAs if traders of the US 100 index haven’t already got enough to worry about with the recent upheaval surrounding global trade, related to Friday’s US Supreme Court decision to rule President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs as illegal, which was quickly followed by the White House’s use of other powers to reinstate a tariff of 15% on all imports into the US. Tomorrow, sees Nvidia, the biggest company in the world by market capitalisation and AI bellwether, report its quarterly earnings after the close. This may be an even bigger event for traders to digest, given the recent sentiment wobble centered around the size of capital expenditure being committed to AI projects, and the debate about when this colossal spending may start to produce a meaningful revenue payoff. Not only that, but February has also seen several nasty sell-offs in the US 100 related to the potential negative impact of AI on the current business models of many businesses from software to wealth management. The latest of which was yesterday, which saw IBM shares experience their worst 1 day fall in over 20 years. On Friday, after the initial headline confirming the US Supreme Court’s decision on reciprocal tariffs, the US 100 index eventually rallied 1% into the close, ending the week at 25012, however after a having a weekend to digest the news and consider what the Nvidia results could mean for pricing, traders came back selling on Monday, taking the index back down to a low at 24611, before bouncing back to current levels around 24780 (0630 GMT). Where the index moves from here could depend not only on comparing the actual results of Nvidia, against lofty expectations, but also on what the company says about future revenue and demand, alongside how it is adjusting to threats to its chip business from a variety of competitors racing to join the space. It could be a very nervy and volatile end to the week and assessing the technical outlook to identify key levels that may be relevant when the US 100 index starts to move could be helpful for structuring new and existing trades. Technical Update: The Battle Between Buyers And Sellers Continues Currently a tug‑of‑war is taking place between buyers and sellers of the US 100 index which is helping to create choppy price action. The wide range is defined by the October 30th high at 26277 and the November 21st low at 23834. This balanced, sideways theme remains intact, and a decisive closing break above 26277 or below 23834 is needed to signal the next significant directional move. With no clear indication yet of which direction a breakout may take, staying aware of relevant closer support and resistance levels can be helpful, especially during a period where price volatility could well increase sharply due to the release of Nvidia’s earnings tomorrow. Potential Support Levels: While support at 23834 remains the key area to watch, there is a closer level that could be worth monitoring at 24142. This corresponds to the February 6th session low. A sustained close below 24142 could open the way for a retest of the more significant 23834 support. Closing breaks below 23834 may increase the risk of a deeper decline. Such a break could open the way for a move toward 23207, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and potentially even 22678, the August 1st session low. Potential Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance could sit near 25078, a level aligned with the Bollinger mid‑average. A sustained close above this level may be needed to signal momentum is building for a move to higher levels. Successful closes above the 25078 level, could open the way for challenges of the next resistance at 25379, which is the February 11th high. If that level were to be broken on a closing basis, attention may then turn toward the more significant October 30th high at 26277. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.