Long EURUSD due to uncertainty around tariffsEuro vs United States DollarTICKMILL:EURUSDTylerWhite_Trade Uncertainty Undermines Confidence in the Dollar If we look at Bloomberg statistics, the share of the dollar in global trade and in central bank reserves is falling sharply. At the beginning of 2025, the dollar accounted for around 50% of central bank reserves worldwide — now it’s only 40%. The dollar’s share in global trade transactions has dropped to 50% (it used to be 80%). And all of this is a consequence of tariffs and trade wars. The logic is simple: More tariffs → less trade between the U.S. and other countries → lower demand for the dollar. Now, after the Supreme Court отменил tariffs, the situation has only become more complicated. The tariffs were first canceled, then Trump immediately introduced new ones at 10%, and later raised them to 15%. As a result, the market is facing major uncertainty: What tariffs are currently in place? When do they take effect? What happens to trade agreements now? If the tariffs are illegal, will there be compensation? Overall, the uncertainty index is now worse than it was during COVID and even in 2008. Yesterday, I was reading an article from ING about how heavily the situation is weighing on the dollar. ING says the dollar has lost some of its safe-haven appeal since 2024, but global demand remains broadly intact. The weakness appears cyclical, de-dollarization is not accelerating, and the Federal Reserve’s credibility remains crucial. ING sees EUR at $1.22 by year-end. I agree with them. On EUR/USD, the target is 1.20–1.22. The euro looks very strong right now, especially considering the latest GDP and PMI data. Buying opportunities could be considered either from the 1.18 support level or from the trend level around 1.17.