Jonathan Bernstein: “First of all, these speeches never have significant effects on public opinion about the president; nor do they change minds about the president’s policy choices. Yes, even now, after decades of evidence to the contrary, we still have headlines asking whether a State of the Union address can ‘fix’ Trump’s awful ‘polling’ and articles about how ‘Trump will have the spotlight as he seeks to sell his victories and convince a skeptical public that he is indeed focused on improving their lives.'”“We know the answer: Any hope that the speech could ‘reignite the presidency’s momentum’ when it comes to public opinion is wishful thinking.”“If it never worked for Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama – all of whom were much better speakers, especially in this format – it’s not going to happen for Donald Trump. Especially since they at least (especially Reagan) had the advantage of a captive audience, with fewer alternatives.”