USD/CAD steadies as traders weigh US jobs buildup and Canadian tUS DOLLAR VS CANADIANERRANTE:USDCADErranteMarket overview USD/CAD is holding around 1.3810 on Thursday after a choppy week of data-driven swings. The dollar is consolidating following softer ISM manufacturing readings that highlighted weakness in US factory activity, while the services sector and labor market will take center stage heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Traders remain cautious ahead of ADP employment and ISM services today, which are expected to refine expectations for a September Fed rate cut. The Canadian dollar is struggling to capitalize on firmer oil prices after OPEC’s signaling of potential output hikes weighed on the commodity earlier in the week. Domestic fundamentals remain mixed: Q2 productivity contracted at -1.0% q/q, underscoring competitiveness challenges, while today’s trade balance will be scrutinized for signs of improvement after July’s -5.86B deficit. Market positioning suggests CAD resilience depends on strong labor and trade readings later in the week, otherwise leaving USD/CAD range-bound near current levels. Technical analysis Current technical conditions and main scenario The 4-hour chart shows USD/CAD bouncing off 1.3780 support and testing resistance at 1.3810. Price action has broken above a short-term descending trendline, signaling that momentum may be shifting. A sustained move above 1.3810–1.3820 would confirm a bullish breakout, targeting 1.3832 (200% Fibonacci extension) and potentially opening the door toward 1.3860 if follow-through builds. Alternative scenario If the pair fails to sustain above 1.3810 and dips back under 1.3798, a retracement toward 1.3780 support is possible. A decisive break beneath 1.3780 would undermine the bullish case and re-expose 1.3750 as the next downside target.