Aryna Sabalenka will face the home favourite Jessica Pegula in the first women’s semi-final. The showdown is a rematch of last year’s final, won by Sabalenka in two sets. Sabalenka is the betting favourite and is bidding to reach the final for a third successive year. Pegula has the chance to gain some revenge for last year’s loss and make it to her second career Grand Slam final. Quick Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula betting tipsAryna Sabalenka to win – 1/3 at SBKJessica Pegula to win under 9.5 games – 19/20 at BetMGMAryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 – 9/10 BetfredAryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula oddsGiven that Aryna Sabalenka has won her last three against Jessica Pegula, is the defending US Open champion and also the world no.1, it’s little surprise that the Belarusian is a heavy odds-on favourite to make it four wins in a row against the American. The latest Sabalenka vs Pegula odds from the best betting sites are below:Aryna Sabalenka – 1/3Jessica Pegula – 13/5Odds provided by SBK are subject to change.Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Head-to-Head and recent formNeither Aryna Sabalenka nor Jessica Pegula has dropped a set at the 2025 US Open so far. However, it’s the No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka who enters the opening semi-final with more gas in the tank. This, after Marketa Vondrousova withdrew from their quarter-final hours before they were due on court, handing the top seed a walkover win in what could have been a tricky encounter.Before her lucky quarter-final break, Sabalenka had defeated Rebeka Masarova, Polina Kudermetova, Leylah Fernandez and Cristina Bucsa. The Belarusian’s appearance in the final four will be the 11th time in her last 12 Grand Slams that she has reached either the semi-final or final. The only time Sabalenka failed to reach the last four was when she crashed out of the 2024 French Open in the quarter-finals.Despite this remarkable consistency, Sabalenka will feel that she should have won more Grand Slams than the three she currently has on her CV.However, with a 7-2 head-to-head advantage over the American, Sabalenka will be confident she should at the very least get another crack at winning a fourth Grand Slam in Saturday’s final in the Arthur Ashe Stadium. No.7 seed Jessica Pegula will need to be at the top of her game if she is to have any chance of beating Sabalenka. But there is hope for the 31-year-old New Yorker. Sabalenka has shown vulnerabilities in recent Slams, losing to Madison Keys in the final of the Australian Open and then imploding in the final of the French Open, losing in three sets to Coco Gauff. Along with the support of a partisan crowd, Pegula will know if she can get into the head of Sabalenka; she will have a chance of upsetting her. On her way to her second consecutive home Slam semi-final, Pegula has defeated Mayar Sherif, Anna Blinkova, Victoria Azarenka, Ann Li and Barbora Krejcikova.The two last met in the final of the Miami Open in March, with Sabalenka winning in two sets (7-5, 6-2). The victory was the Belarusian’s third win in a row over Pegula. On hard courts, Sabalenka holds a 4-2 advantage in the head-to-head.Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula predictions and tips. 18+ GambleAware.org – Please play responsibly.Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula betting predictions and tipsNeither player has been pushed too hard in the US Open so far, but it’s Sabalenka who will be the fresher of the two after her quarter-final walkover win. Our semi-final match tips follow: Aryna Sabalenka to winWorld No. 1 Sabalenka has lost some high profile matches she should have won in her last couple of Grand Slams. She was the clear favourite to defeat Coco Gauff in the French Open final, but imploded to lose in three sets. Similarly, at Wimbledon, Sabalenka conspired to lose in three sets to Amanda Anisimova in the semi-final when well placed to win.Surely Sabalenka will have learned from those two recent high profile implosions and will book her place in a third successive US Open final. Furthermore, this is an arena in which Sabalenka thrives. We can see her overpowering Pegula and upsetting the home crowd by beating the local girl. Back Aryna Sabalenka to beat Jessica Pegula at 1/3 with SBK Jessica Pegula to win under 9.5 gamesAryna Sabalenka is the fresher player and has also held the upper hand over Pegula in recent meetings. Pegula has only covered the 9.5 game spread in one of their last three meetings.The first set could be close, with Sabalenka edging it. But we expect to see the world No. 1 run away with the second, restricting Pegula to under ten games in the match. Back Jessica Pegula to win less than 10 games in the match at 19/20 with BetMGM Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0Following on from our second betting pick, we are going for Aryna Sabalenka to win the match 2-0.The Belarusian has won their last three meetings in two sets, and furthermore, all seven of Sabalenka’s wins over Pegula have been by two sets to nil.Despite having the backing of the home crowd, we haven’t seen anything to suggest that this match will be any different, and we can see Sabalenka again winning in two sets. Back Aryna Sabalenka to win two-nil in sets at 9/10 with Betfred How to watch the Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula match liveAt talkSPORT, we will be bringing you all the latest news, along with our tennis betting tips on the remainder of the US Open. Details of how to watch the Sabalenka vs Pegula showdown follow below:Location: Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA.Date and time: Friday, 5th September, 12am.How to watch: Live on Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis and Sky Sports UHDAbout the authorDean EtheridgeDean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)Commercial content notice: Taking one of the bookmaker offers featured in this article may result in a payment to talkSPORT. 18+. T&Cs apply. 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