EUR/USD - Next Week Direction? (Part 2)Euro / United States DollarCMCMARKETS:EURUSDXianWEURUSD What happened since last week In MY PREVIOUS ANALYSIS: - Price respected the 1.1650–1.1620 demand zone and the 4H EMA base, then pushed higher exactly as mapped. We stair-stepped into the 1.1730 region and briefly printed a new swing high near 1.1742 before consolidating. - The catalyst was a broad USD pullback after the Fed’s dovish tilt at Jackson Hole. U.S. yields retreated into Friday’s close, and DXY softened, allowing EUR/USD to extend above 1.17. - Headlines reinforced uncertainty around U.S. policy and tariffs, capping USD rebounds. Meanwhile, the ECB remains cautious but less eager to ease than the Fed, keeping policy divergence supportive for EUR/USD. Now, - Fed: Markets lean toward a September cut; the tone is data dependent, with CPI and labor trends key for guidance into the Sep 17–18 FOMC. - ECB: Decision and presser on Sep 11. With inflation near target but growth subdued, guidance is likely careful—still less dovish than the Fed path, which keeps the divergence theme intact. - Net effect: Mild EUR/USD bullish bias while U.S. yields drift lower and the Fed is perceived closer to easing. The trend remains bullish. Why my view still stands: - Policy divergence remains the principal driver: the Fed is closer to easing than the ECB Sep 11. Together with softer U.S. yields, that continues to favor EUR strength on dips. - Technically, buyers keep absorbing retracements into 1.1650–1.1620, and the 4H EMA remains a reliable institutional anchor. What I’m watching next: - Sep 11 ECB: Any pushback against early easing could help EUR. A surprisingly dovish read would cap rallies near 1.18. - U.S. CPI and labor gauges into the Sep 17–18 FOMC: downside CPI surprises or softer labor data likely extend USD weakness; upside surprises risk a squeeze back toward 1.1650. - Tariff/Geopolitical headlines: sources of intraday volatility; manage size around event risk. Bottom line: As long as the pair holds above 1.1650, dips are buyable for a continuation toward 1.1800/1.1829. I will avoid chasing into resistance and prefer pullbacks to 1.1690–1.1705 or 1.1650–1.1660, and I’ll switch stance only on a daily close below 1.1650. So how’s your trade? Mine hit two long take-profits and one tactical short. Remember, consistency beats intensity! Trade with patience, discipline, and confidence in your plan!