BTC: 112,681 in sight, 115.3k if breakout holdsBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDOx_kali__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC bounced back above the weekly pivot 111,965 after a dip below 110k and is hovering near 112.2k, still trapped inside the 104k–116k corridor. Short-term momentum is positive but capped by a 4H/6H “Pivot High.” Momentum: Bullish 📈 in the short term within a broader range; buyers defend 111,965 but meet supply at 112,681. Key levels: - Resistances (4H/6H → 1D): 112,681 (240 PH), 115,300 (720 PH), 124,277 (D PH, distant extension). - Supports (4H → 1D): 111,965 (W PH turned support), 109,905 (240 PL), 107,300 (cluster PL). Volumes: Normal on HTF; notable 1H spike during the recent push. Multi-timeframe signals: ST (15m–1H) bullish; mid TF (2H–6H) still corrective; HTF (12H–1D) constructive → bias improves if 112,681 flips to support. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (moderate risk-off) — it contradicts the intraday bounce and can cap extensions without a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is a “range with a bullish lean”: trade conditional entries, confirm breakouts, and keep stops tight. Global bias: Neutral Buy with key invalidation below 109,900 (loss of the 240 PL base). Opportunities: - Continuation long: break & retest of 112,681 to target 114.0k then 115.3k. - Defensive long: clean pullback holding 111,965 (1H higher low) to re-test 112,681. - Tactical short: clear rejection at 112.68–113.0k (bearish 4H candle) to 112.0k then 111.0k/109.9k. Risk zones / invalidations: - 4H–12H close below 111,965 reopens 110k then 109.9k. - A reclaim above 115,300 invalidates the mid‑TF bearish structure and unlocks 120–124k. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: September remains “live”; a cut is increasingly priced — supportive for risk if confirmed. - NFP/Unemployment: a soft print would fuel risk-on and breakout follow‑throughs. - Crypto liquidity: fresh $2B USDT mint + cross‑chain reallocations — deeper books if 112,681 breaks. Action plan: - Long (break & retest 112,681): Entry 112.70–112.85k / Stop 113.1k / TP1 112.0k, TP2 111.0k, TP3 109.9k / R:R ~1.2R to 2.5R. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ This is a “range‑recovery” alignment: ST drives, mid TFs resist, HTFs remain supportive. 1D/12H: Constructive above 111,965; a clean move through 112,681 sets up a test of 115,300 (major range ceiling). 6H/4H/2H: Still printing a “lower high” under 115.3k; 112,681 is the rotation hinge — rejections = 112.0k/111,965 retests. 1H/30m/15m: Bullish momentum with elevated 1H volumes; needs solid close/retest above 112,681 to avoid a fakeout. Key divergences/confluences: ST strength + HTF support vs Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in VENTE and mid‑TF corrective tone → prioritize confirmed flips at 112,681. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is leaning toward monetary easing while stablecoin liquidity expands — a supportive backdrop if technical levels confirm. Macro events: Fed keeps September “live” with a cut increasingly priced; a soft NFP would add risk-on fuel; oil softens and gold appetite stays firm — near‑term inflation pressure eases. Bitcoin analysis: Price ~111.5–112k with short‑squeeze risk if momentum continues; BTC spot ETF flows remain flat vs improving ETH — implying measured BTC spot demand but reactive to technical breaks. On-chain data: +$2B USDT minted and cross‑chain shifts → deeper market depth; URPD/accumulation in 108–116k matches the range; neutral funding = fragile momentum. Expected impact: A dovish follow‑through (cut pricing + soft jobs) supports the “Neutral Buy” toward 115.3k; risk‑off shocks would pressure 111,965/109,9k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Range market with a recovery bias as long as 111,965 holds and 112,681 turns into support. - Overall trend: short‑term bullish/neutral inside the 104k–116k range. - Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 112,681 targeting 115.3k. - One key macro factor: growing odds of a September Fed cut boost risk appetite. Stay disciplined: trade confirmation, not anticipation, and respect stops. ⚠️