GBPCHF on the Edge: Why a Major Breakdown Could Be NextGBP/CHFOANDA:GBPCHFEdgeTradingJourney1. Retail Sentiment 90% of retail traders are long, only 10% are short. Long volume is heavily skewed (536 lots vs 58 short). ➡️ This imbalance suggests a risk of further downside pressure (contrarian view), as markets often move against the retail crowd. 2. COT Report (Sept 2, 2025) CHF: Non-commercials heavily short (34k vs 8k long). Commercials strongly long, hedging in favor of CHF strength. ➡️ Structural bullish bias for CHF. GBP: Non-commercials net short (109k vs 76k long). Commercials significantly long (117k vs 85k short), hedging a weak pound. ➡️ Confirms bearish pressure on GBP. Summary: Strong CHF – Weak GBP → Main direction: Short GBPCHF. 3. Seasonality (September) CHF: Historically strong in September. GBP: Historically weak in September. ➡️ Seasonality supports a short bias on GBPCHF. 4. Price Action Strong rejection from weekly supply zone (1.0850–1.0900). Bearish continuation candle below 1.0800 resistance. Next support: 1.0700–1.0680 zone. RSI trending lower with no divergence → bearish momentum intact. 5. Trading Plan Bias: Short GBPCHF. Key levels: Resistance: 1.0800 / 1.0850 (ideal short re-entry). Support: 1.0700 (first target), extension to 1.0650–1.0620 if bearish pressure continues. Strategy: Wait for a pullback into 1.0800–1.0850 to short, stop above 1.0900. Targets: 1.0700 → 1.0650. If price breaks straight below 1.0700, expect continuation towards 1.0620. ✅ Pro conclusion: All factors (COT, sentiment, seasonality, technicals) align in favor of CHF strength and GBP weakness. The best setup is a short re-entry near 1.0800–1.0850, targeting 1.0700 and 1.0650 with controlled risk above 1.0900.