Bitcoin at a Critical HTF Support — Bounce or Final Shakeout?Bitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDRisk_and_RyeTaking a zoomed-out look at Bitcoin (BTC) on the 1W timeframe — this is a macro perspective, not a short-term trade setup. These candles carry weight, so the focus here is overall direction rather than precise entries. Price is currently testing the 200 SMA, a level that has historically acted as a strong high-timeframe support zone. This is typically where price finds footing and momentum begins to shift. What stands out most here is the RSI behavior. I mapped out every instance where RSI has dropped into this same oversold range and aligned it with price action. The pattern is consistent: • In most cases → price reacts with a move to the upside • There is one exception → price moved sideways before eventually expanding That sideways scenario has been highlighted and projected forward as a potential outcome in the current structure. So at this level, we’re looking at two possible paths: Immediate reaction → RSI oversold → price rebounds Deviation scenario → slight move lower → extended sideways accumulation → then expansion Momentum signals are beginning to shift: • RSI is oversold • MACD is deeply extended and curling toward a potential bullish cross • Volume is gradually increasing At the same time, price has been compressing for ~8 weeks, which often precedes a larger expansion move. Summary: Bitcoin is sitting at a key high-timeframe support with strong historical confluence. While signs point toward downside exhaustion, there is still a realistic scenario where price dips slightly lower and consolidates before a true bottom forms. Patience is key in this zone — the setup is developing, but not fully confirmed.