BTCUSDT. Rise to 71,000 and possible pullbackBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTCoinRangerTechnical Analysis: 1️⃣СCI - above +100, a trade will require a move below +100 2️⃣RSI - above 70, a trade will require a move below 70 3️⃣Levels: 🔸Most important - 61.8% Fibonacci + uptrend = 69,330, which we've already passed 🔸Range = 1st uptrend = 71,500 + Volume 1 = 70,860 + 78.6% = 70,500 - potential reversal zone 🔸Volume 2 = 68,660 🔸Volume 3 = 66,870 4️⃣Larger TF (h4) - 200 EMA broken, CCI and RSI are also above the extreme range boundaries. The average will become a potential stop for the price during the downward movement. 5️⃣Price movement forecast - on the chart. Entry, stop, take profit: 🔸Entry: Sell. A downward breakout of something in the range above. I believe this will happen between 70860 and 70500. 🔸Stop: Preliminary behind the peak at 72000; with a sharp move, you can quickly move to a buy/stop position. 🔸Take profit: Preliminary volume 3 = 66870 🔸Risk/reward: 2.18 - not the best trade 🔸Execution: I think until Wednesday or Thursday Cancellation 🔸Ceasefire in the Middle East Fundamental: 1️⃣ Fear Index: 13 (Extreme Fear) → 🟢 Positive for BTC. Potential reversal. Trigger - Middle East. 2️⃣ BTC Dominance: 56.3% → ⚪ Neutral. Down from 58.5% a week earlier. Capital still prefers BTC. 3️⃣ Funding Rate: +0.0055% (Binance API, April 6, 08:00 UTC) → ⚪ Neutral. Close to zero (base 0.01%). No overheating. Market in standby mode. 4️⃣ Open Interest: ~$46.9B → 🟢 Positive for BTC. Traders are hardly using leverage. 5️⃣ Liquidations (24h): $47.8M, 55.7K accounts (CoinGlass) → ⚪ Neutral. Few liquidations. 6️⃣ ETF Flows: +$22.3M for the week (March 30 - April 2) → ⚪ Neutral. There were a lot of days off. But the important thing is that the outflows have given way to a small inflow. New data will be available tomorrow. 7️⃣ Exchange Net Flow: +2,438 BTC for April 6 (incomplete daily data) → ⚪ Neutral. A small inflow to exchanges after a series of outflows in late March - early April. Volume is still insignificant. 8️⃣ MVRV: ~1.5-1.7 (estimate) → ⚪ Neutral. Market is in profit ~50%. 9️⃣ Whale Inflow Ratio: falling from a peak of 0.85 (February) → ⚪ Neutral. Downward pressure on the price from whale selling is easing. 🔟 Top Holders: 270,000 BTC accumulated over the month, 20,031 wallets with 100+ BTC → 🟢 Positive for BTC. Retailers are selling, whales are buying. 1️⃣1️⃣ Geopolitics: Iran → 🔴 Negative for BTC. The most important factor. The situation changes literally with every new article, either about a ceasefire or new threats. Bitcoin is currently gaining on rumors of a 45-day truce, but what's actually happening is unclear. And this is the most dangerous factor affecting the price. Conclusion: 👈🏻 Neutral with a bullish bias in the medium term. Overall, the fundamentals are in a holding pattern. A clear resolution to the situation in the Middle East is important.